Toluca vs. Queretaro Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Queretaro Liga MX match on April 4, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Toluca
0
1
Estadio La Corregidora
Queretaro
Estadio La Corregidora
QueretaroQUT
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
A. Avila (76')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Queretaro
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    A. Avila (Queretaro) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: J. Robles replaces M. Coronel
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: L. Rodriguez replaces A. Avila
  4. 90'
    Yellow Card
    N. Castro (Toluca) cautioned
  5. 90'
    Yellow Card
    B. Duarte (Queretaro) cautioned
  6. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: C. Villanueva replaces Jhojan Julio
  7. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: B. Parra replaces S. Homenchenko
  8. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Simon replaces D. Barbosa
  9. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Rossi replaces J. Angulo
  10. 76'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Queretaro by A. Avila, assisted by Jhojan Julio
    0-1
  11. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Cordova replaces J. Diaz
  12. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Queretaro: F. Venegas replaces J. Cazares
  13. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: A. Vega replaces Helinho
  14. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Gallardo replaces M. Isais
  15. 45'
    Yellow Card
    L. Abascia (Queretaro) cautioned

Toluca vs. Queretaro: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Queretaro
  • Date: Saturday, April 4, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio La Corregidora

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca -180, Queretaro +480, draw +340
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-145/+130)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 61.8%
  • Queretaro: 17.5%
  • Draw: 20.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 2-0 Queretaro (10.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Toluca vs. Queretaro? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 61.8%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 2-0 Queretaro.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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