Toluca vs. Pachuca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Pachuca Liga MX match on March 22, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Toluca
1
:
1
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Pachuca
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
PachucaPAC
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
E. Montiel (72')
Soccer ball icon
F. Romero (45')
Soccer ball icon
F. Arce (78')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Pachuca
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Cordova replaces Paulinho
  2. 88'
    Yellow Card
    L. Quinones (Pachuca) cautioned
  3. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Pachuca: L. Quinones replaces Kenedy
  4. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Pachuca: G. Alvarez replaces O. Idrissi
  5. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Pachuca: C. Alfaro replaces S. D. Barreto
  6. 81'
    Yellow Card
    Paulinho (Toluca) cautioned
  7. 78'
    Red Card
    F. Arce (Toluca) sent off with a straight red card
  8. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz replaces A. Vega
  9. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: D. Barbosa replaces S. Simon
  10. 72'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Pachuca by E. Montiel, assisted by Kenedy
    1-1
  11. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Pachuca: E. Montiel replaces V. Guzman
  12. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Arce replaces Helinho
  13. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Pachuca: E. Valencia replaces A. Dominguez
  14. 50'
    Yellow Card
    S. D. Barreto (Pachuca) cautioned
  15. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by F. Romero
    1-0
  16. 35'
    Yellow Card
    S. Rondon (Pachuca) cautioned
  17. 35'
    Yellow Card
    F. Pereira (Toluca) cautioned
  18. 10'
    Yellow Card
    E. del Villar (Toluca) cautioned

Toluca vs. Pachuca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Pachuca
  • Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca -110, Pachuca +290, draw +280
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-155/+132)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 48.5%
  • Pachuca: 28.3%
  • Draw: 23.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Pachuca (10.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Toluca vs. Pachuca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 48.5%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Pachuca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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