Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao La Liga match on April 25, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Athletic Bilbao
2
3
Metropolitano Stadium
Atletico Madrid
Metropolitano Stadium
Atletico MadridATM
Score Summary
Athletic BilbaoBIL
A. Griezmann (49')
Soccer ball icon
A. Sorloth (54')
Soccer ball icon
A. Sorloth (90')
Soccer ball icon
A. Paredes (23')
Soccer ball icon
G. Guruzeta (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Atletico Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Athletic Bilbao
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Sorloth, assisted by N. Molina
    1-3
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by G. Guruzeta, assisted by A. Rego
    2-3
  3. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: O. Vargas replaces Koke
  4. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: R. Le Normand replaces G. Simeone
  5. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: R. Navarro replaces N. Williams
  6. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: M. Vesga replaces I. Ruiz de Galarreta
  7. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Berenguer replaces I. Williams
  8. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Boiro replaces Y. Berchiche
  9. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: O. Sancet replaces U. Gomez
  10. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: N. Molina replaces M. Llorente
  11. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: N. Gonzalez replaces A. Griezmann
  12. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: J. Cardoso replaces P. Barrios
  13. 54'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Sorloth, assisted by A. Baena
    1-2
  14. 49'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Griezmann
    1-1
  15. 23'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by A. Paredes, assisted by I. Ruiz de Galarreta
    1-0

Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao
  • Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Metropolitano Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Atletico Madrid +100, Athletic Bilbao +300, draw +275
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-124/+110)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Atletico Madrid: 47.1%
  • Athletic Bilbao: 27.4%
  • Draw: 25.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (12.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao? Prediction & correct score

Atletico Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 47.1%.

The most likely correct score is Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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