Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao La Liga match on April 25, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.

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FINAL

LA LIGA

FINAL

LA LIGA

Athletic Bilbao

Apr 25, 3:00 PM ET Metropolitano Stadium

Atletico Madrid

Apr 25, 3:00 PM ET Metropolitano Stadium

Atletico MadridATM

Score Summary

Athletic BilbaoBIL

A. Griezmann (49')

A. Sorloth (54')

A. Sorloth (90')

A. Paredes (23')

G. Guruzeta (90')

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Win %

Atletico Madrid
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
Athletic Bilbao
0.0%

Win Probability

Match Timeline

90'

Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Sorloth, assisted by N. Molina

1-3

90'

Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by G. Guruzeta, assisted by A. Rego

2-3

72'

Substitution for Atl. Madrid: O. Vargas replaces Koke

72'

Substitution for Atl. Madrid: R. Le Normand replaces G. Simeone

70'

Substitution for Ath Bilbao: R. Navarro replaces N. Williams

70'

Substitution for Ath Bilbao: M. Vesga replaces I. Ruiz de Galarreta

70'

Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Berenguer replaces I. Williams

64'

Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Boiro replaces Y. Berchiche

64'

Substitution for Ath Bilbao: O. Sancet replaces U. Gomez

63'

Substitution for Atl. Madrid: N. Molina replaces M. Llorente

63'

Substitution for Atl. Madrid: N. Gonzalez replaces A. Griezmann

58'

Substitution for Atl. Madrid: J. Cardoso replaces P. Barrios

54'

Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Sorloth, assisted by A. Baena

1-2

49'

Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Griezmann

1-1

23'

Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by A. Paredes, assisted by I. Ruiz de Galarreta

1-0

Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

Teams: Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao
Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Venue: Metropolitano Stadium

Current betting odds

Moneyline: Atletico Madrid +100, Athletic Bilbao +300, draw +275
Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-124/+110)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

Atletico Madrid: 47.1%
Athletic Bilbao: 27.4%
Draw: 25.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (12.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao? Prediction & correct score

Atletico Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 47.1%.

The most likely correct score is Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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