Liberty vs. Dream prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Game 1 [2026 WNBA Playoffs]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Dream, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dream a 70.3% chance of defeating the Liberty in Game 1 of the series. According to our model, the Dream (-3.5) have a 57.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 173.5 points has a 52.3% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Liberty +3.5 (+108) / Dream -3.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Liberty +156, Dream -160
• Total: Over/Under 173.5 (+104/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for Game 1

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dream -3.5 @ -112 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Dream @ -160 via BetMGM
• Total: Over 173.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top Game 1 player props

Looking for Liberty vs. Dream WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gateway Center Arena.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 19 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists, while Allisha Gray is projected to have 18 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists for the Dream.

For early game action, the data identifies Breanna Stewart as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

• Breanna Stewart: 19 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST
• Jonquel Jones: 15 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST
• Sabrina Ionescu: 14 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST
• Pauline Astier: 8 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST
• Leonie Fiebich: 6 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST

Dream player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Dream:

• Allisha Gray: 18 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST
• Rhyne Howard: 16 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST
• Angel Reese: 16 PTS, 12 REB, 3 AST
• Jordin Canada: 11 PTS, 3 REB, 8 AST
• Naz Hillmon: 8 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST

Game info & tip-off details

Sunday's Game 1 between the Dream and Liberty at Gateway Center Arena is scheduled to begin at 2:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00AM PT
• Venue: Gateway Center Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with a 70.3% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.