Daniil Medvedev vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili prediction, odds, picks for ATP Almaty Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's Medvedev-Basilashvili men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Medvedev an 80% chance of defeating Basilashvili at the ATP Almaty Open tournament. Additionally, Medvedev has a 75% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Nikoloz Basilashvili +333, Daniil Medvedev -417
• First Set: Medvedev -333, Basilashvili +250

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Medvedev @ -417 via DraftKings
• First Set: Basilashvili @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Daniil Medvedev to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Almaty Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Nikoloz Basilashvili is scheduled to begin on Sunday at 6:00 AM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili
• Date: Sunday, October 25, 2026
• Approx. Time: 6:00 AM ET/3:00 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Almaty, Kazakhstan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Final

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with an 80% win probability, will likely beat Nikoloz Basilashvili at the ATP Almaty Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.