Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Canadiens vs. Lightning NHL game on May 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Canadiens
2
1
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 0 1 2
Lightning
0 1 0 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Canadiens
    100%
  • Lightning
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 0 1 2
Lightning
0 1 0 1
P3 19:15 Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 16:37 Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
P3 16:10 Erik Cernak shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 15:14 Shot missed by Dominic James
P3 14:43 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Noah Dobson
P3 12:57 Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 12:02 Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 11:07 Shot on goal by Canadiens saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 11:03 Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 09:43 Noah Dobson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 09:31 Shot missed by Cole Caufield
P3 09:18 Noah Dobson shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
P3 09:12 Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 07:05 Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 06:04 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 05:34 Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 05:12 J.J. Moser shot blocked by Ivan Demidov
P3 02:52 Zachary Bolduc shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 01:44 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P2 19:59 Brayden Point shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:54
    Penalty to Mike Matheson 2 minutes for Delay of Game
  3. P3 19:54
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  4. P3 19:53
    Power play - Nick Paul won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  5. P3 19:44
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  6. P3 19:15
    SHOT
    Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  7. P3 19:11
    Anthony Cirelli credited with hit on Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  8. P3 18:19
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  9. P3 17:59
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  10. P3 17:48
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  11. P3 17:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  12. P3 16:37
    SHOT
    Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
  13. P3 16:10
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  14. P3 15:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dominic James
  15. P3 14:43
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Noah Dobson
  16. P3 14:31
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  17. P3 13:59
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  18. P3 13:59
    Stoppage - Icing
  19. P3 12:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  20. P3 12:18
    Jake Evans credited with hit on Brayden Point in defensive zone
  21. P3 12:06
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  22. P3 12:06
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  23. P3 12:03
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  24. P3 12:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jakub Dobes
  25. P3 11:07
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  26. P3 11:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Canadiens saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  27. P3 11:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  28. P3 09:43
    SHOT
    Noah Dobson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
  29. P3 09:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Cole Caufield
  30. P3 09:18
    SHOT
    Noah Dobson shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
  31. P3 09:12
    SHOT
    Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
  32. P3 08:29
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  33. P3 08:15
    Brayden Point credited with hit on Alexandre Carrier in offensive zone
  34. P3 07:48
    Kirby Dach won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  35. P3 07:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  36. P3 06:42
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
  37. P3 06:42
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  38. P3 06:06
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  39. P3 06:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jakub Dobes
  40. P3 05:36
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  41. P3 05:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  42. P3 05:25
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  43. P3 05:19
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  44. P3 05:19
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  45. P3 05:12
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Ivan Demidov
  46. P3 05:10
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
  47. P3 04:50
    Dominic James won faceoff against Jake Evans in neutral zone
  48. P3 04:28
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  49. P3 04:28
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  50. P3 02:52
    SHOT
    Zachary Bolduc shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  51. P3 01:50
    Nick Paul credited with hit on Kaiden Guhle in offensive zone
  52. P3 01:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  53. P3 01:28
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
  54. P3 00:41
    Takeaway by Noah Dobson in offensive zone
  55. P3 00:21
    Alexandre Carrier credited with hit on Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
  56. P3 00:00
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  57. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  58. P2 19:59
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  59. P2 18:46
    Alex Newhook won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  60. P2 18:46
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  61. P2 18:27
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  62. P2 18:27
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  63. P2 18:07
    Stoppage - Offside
  64. P2 18:03
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  65. P2 17:59
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  66. P2 17:59
    Stoppage - Icing
  67. P2 17:52
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  68. P2 16:53
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
  69. P2 16:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nick Suzuki
  70. P2 15:22
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  71. P2 15:22
    Penalty to Dominic James 2 minutes for Misconduct
  72. P2 15:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  73. P2 14:25
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
  74. P2 14:25
    Stoppage - Icing
  75. P2 13:27
    Kirby Dach won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  76. P2 13:11
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nick Paul
  77. P2 12:33
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  78. P2 11:29
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  79. P2 11:29
    Stoppage - Icing
  80. P2 10:49
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  81. P2 10:43
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
  82. P2 10:43
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  83. P2 10:40
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by teammate
  84. P2 10:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  85. P2 09:35
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  86. P2 08:31
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  87. P2 07:39
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  88. P2 07:39
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  89. P2 07:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
  90. P2 05:49
    Power play - Takeaway by Lane Hutson in defensive zone
  91. P2 05:04
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  92. P2 04:21
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  93. P2 04:19
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jakub Dobes
  94. P2 03:41
    Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  95. P2 03:38
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
  96. P2 03:14
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  97. P2 03:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Jakub Dobes
  98. P2 03:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
  99. P2 02:17
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Alex Newhook
  100. P2 02:02
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Alex Newhook in offensive zone
  101. P2 02:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  102. P2 01:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jakub Dobes
  103. P2 01:00
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Lane Hutson
  104. P2 00:28
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Alexandre Carrier in offensive zone
  105. P2 00:00
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
  106. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  107. P1 19:07
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Lightning in defensive zone
  108. P1 19:07
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in defensive zone
  109. P1 18:39
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  110. P1 17:41
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  111. P1 17:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
  112. P1 17:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alexandre Carrier saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  113. P1 16:28
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  114. P1 15:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jakub Dobes
  115. P1 14:39
    Giveaway by Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  116. P1 14:10
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Lane Hutson
  117. P1 14:01
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Josh Anderson in defensive zone
  118. P1 13:57
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  119. P1 13:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  120. P1 13:11
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  121. P1 12:15
    SHOT
    Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  122. P1 11:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zachary Bolduc
  123. P1 11:11
    SHOT
    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by teammate
  124. P1 10:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  125. P1 10:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  126. P1 10:31
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Zachary Bolduc
  127. P1 10:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dominic James
  128. P1 09:30
    Stoppage - Icing
  129. P1 09:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  130. P1 08:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jakub Dobes
  131. P1 08:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  132. P1 08:05
    SHOT
    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  133. P1 07:30
    SHOT
    Josh Anderson shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  134. P1 07:29
    Stoppage - Icing
  135. P1 06:09
    SHOT
    Lane Hutson shot blocked by teammate
  136. P1 06:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brendan Gallagher
  137. P1 05:44
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  138. P1 04:54
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  139. P1 04:54
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  140. P1 04:34
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  141. P1 04:34
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  142. P1 03:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jakub Dobes
  143. P1 03:15
    Takeaway by Ryan McDonagh in defensive zone
  144. P1 01:48
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  145. P1 01:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kaiden Guhle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  146. P1 01:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  147. P1 00:22
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  148. P1 00:00
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
Stats
Canadiens
STATS
Lightning
9Shots on Goal29
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
6Penalty Infraction Mins4
43Hits30
13 Shots Blocked 15
12Giveaways12
CanadiensMTL
LightningTB
9Shots on Goal29
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
6Penalty Infraction Mins4
43Hits30
13 Shots Blocked 15
12Giveaways12

Canadiens vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Canadiens vs. Lightning
  • Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
  • Time: 6:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 5.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Canadiens 40¢, Lightning 60¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Canadiens: 41%
  • Lightning: 59%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Canadiens a win probability of 41%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 59%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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