Maple Leafs vs. Kraken prediction, odds, pick for Oct. 28, 2026

The Toronto Maple Leafs are favored to beat the Seattle Kraken at Climate Pledge Arena on Wednesday (10:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Kraken prediction gives Toronto a 52.5% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Kraken as the underdog.

Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: Key predictions

• Maple Leafs win probability: 52.5%
• Kraken win probability: 47.5%
• Kraken +1.5 puck line: 68.3% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 50.4% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest. We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Maple Leafs vs. Kraken odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Maple Leafs moneyline: 56¢ (Novig)
• Kraken moneyline: 45¢ (Novig)
• Maple Leafs -1.5: 34¢ (Novig)
• Kraken +1.5: -200 (BetMGM)
• Over 6.5 goals: 53¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 48¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Maple Leafs vs. Kraken pick: Kraken moneyline (45¢)

Our model makes the Maple Leafs the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Kraken moneyline at 45¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the Kraken an implied win probability of 44.5%, while our model puts it at 47.5%.

That's a 3.0% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Maple Leafs vs. Kraken goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Auston Matthews of the Maple Leafs leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Wednesday's game at 39.3%, ahead of teammate William Nylander (38.7%). Seattle's most likely goal-scorer, Bobby McMann, is further back at 34.3%. Matthews and Nylander share the highest first goal-scorer probability at 7.7% each.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

• 1. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 39.3%\n2. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 38.7%\n3. Bobby McMann (Kraken): 34.3%\n4. Jordan Eberle (Kraken): 29.0%\n5. Kirill Marchenko (Maple Leafs): 28.8%

First goal-scorer predictions

• 1. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 7.7%\n2. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 7.7%\n3. Bobby McMann (Kraken): 5.9%\n4. Jordan Eberle (Kraken): 5.2%\n5. Kirill Marchenko (Maple Leafs): 4.7%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Maple Leafs vs. Kraken prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Maple Leafs vs. Kraken predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Maple Leafs vs. Kraken game details

• Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Seattle Kraken
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Puck drop: 10:00 PM ET
• Venue: Climate Pledge Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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