Flyers vs. Capitals prediction, odds, pick for Oct. 28, 2026

The Washington Capitals are favored to beat the Philadelphia Flyers at Capital One Arena on Wednesday (7:30 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Flyers vs. Capitals prediction gives Washington a 63.0% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Flyers as the underdog.

Flyers vs. Capitals: Key predictions

• Capitals win probability: 63.0%
• Flyers win probability: 37.0%
• Flyers +1.5 puck line: 59.1% cover probability
• Under 6 goals: 52.6% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest. We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Flyers vs. Capitals odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Flyers moneyline: 32¢ (Novig)
• Capitals moneyline: -213 (theScore Bet)
• Flyers +1.5: 55¢ (Novig)
• Capitals -1.5: 46¢ (Novig)
• Over 6 goals: -120 (BetMGM)
• Under 6 goals: +100 (BetMGM)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Flyers vs. Capitals pick: Flyers moneyline (32¢)

Our model makes the Capitals the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Flyers moneyline at 32¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the Flyers an implied win probability of 32.0%, while our model puts it at 37.0%.

That's a 5.0% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Flyers vs. Capitals goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Alex Tuch of the Capitals leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Wednesday's game at 31.4%, ahead of teammate Tom Wilson (27.3%). Philadelphia's most likely goal-scorer, Tyson Foerster, is further back at 26.3%. Tuch also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 6.8%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

• 1. Alex Tuch (Capitals): 31.4%\n2. Tom Wilson (Capitals): 27.3%\n3. Tyson Foerster (Flyers): 26.3%\n4. Alex Ovechkin (Capitals): 24.3%\n5. Jakob Chychrun (Capitals): 23.6%

First goal-scorer predictions

• 1. Alex Tuch (Capitals): 6.8%\n2. Tom Wilson (Capitals): 5.4%\n3. Tyson Foerster (Flyers): 5.2%\n4. Matvei Michkov (Flyers): 4.8%\n5. Dylan Strome (Capitals): 4.7%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Flyers vs. Capitals prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Flyers vs. Capitals predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Flyers vs. Capitals game details

• Matchup: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: Capital One Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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