Flames vs. Oilers prediction, odds, pick for Oct. 28, 2026

The Edmonton Oilers are favored to beat the Calgary Flames at Rogers Place on Wednesday (8:30 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Flames vs. Oilers prediction gives Edmonton a 64.1% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value is on the under 6.5 goals.

Flames vs. Oilers: Key predictions

• Oilers win probability: 64.1%
• Flames win probability: 35.8%
• Flames +1.5 puck line: 58.2% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 52.4% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest. We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Flames vs. Oilers odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track. Novig has the best price in every market for this game.

• Flames moneyline: 37¢ (Novig)
• Oilers moneyline: 63¢ (Novig)
• Flames +1.5: 59¢ (Novig)
• Oilers -1.5: 42¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 53¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 48¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Flames vs. Oilers pick: Under 6.5 (48¢)

Our model makes the Oilers the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at 48¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the underan implied probability of 48.5%, while our model puts it at 52.4%.

That's a 3.9% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Flames vs. Oilers goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Leon Draisaitl of the Oilers leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Wednesday's game at 44.3%, ahead of teammate Connor McDavid (42.0%). Calgary's most likely goal-scorer, Joel Farabee, is further back at 25.9%. Draisaitl also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 9.7%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

• 1. Leon Draisaitl (Oilers): 44.3%\n2. Connor McDavid (Oilers): 42.0%\n3. Zach Hyman (Oilers): 37.3%\n4. Vasily Podkolzin (Oilers): 26.7%\n5. Joel Farabee (Flames): 25.9%

First goal-scorer predictions

• 1. Leon Draisaitl (Oilers): 9.7%\n2. Connor McDavid (Oilers): 7.9%\n3. Zach Hyman (Oilers): 6.8%\n4. Vasily Podkolzin (Oilers): 5.0%\n5. Evan Bouchard (Oilers): 4.8%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Flames vs. Oilers prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Flames vs. Oilers predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Flames vs. Oilers game details

• Matchup: Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Puck drop: 8:30 PM ET
• Venue: Rogers Place

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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