Maple Leafs vs. Oilers prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 24, 2026

The Edmonton Oilers are favored to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday, according to Dimers' NHL pregame model.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Oilers prediction gives Edmonton a 60.8% chance of winning at Rogers Place, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value lies in under 6.5 goals.

Maple Leafs vs. Oilers: Key predictions

• Oilers win probability: 60.8%
• Maple Leafs win probability: 39.2%
• Maple Leafs +1.5 puck line: 60.4% cover probability
• Over 6.5 goals: 55.1% probability

Dimers' NHL pregame model estimates how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent form, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

These projections power our NHL predictions, which show the probability of each team winning, covering the puck line, and the total goals going over or under the betting line.

Maple Leafs vs. Oilers odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets monitored by Dimers.

• Maple Leafs moneyline: 39¢ (Novig)
• Oilers moneyline: 61¢ (Novig)
• Maple Leafs +1.5: 60¢ (Novig)
• Oilers -1.5: 41¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 60¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 41¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Under 6.5 (41¢)

The Oilers may be more likely to win, but Dimers' top value bet is under 6.5 total goals at 41¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply a 41.0% chance of the game finishing under 6.5 goals, while our model puts that probability at 44.9%.

That's a 3.9% edge on the under, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Oilers goal-scorer predictions

Unlike our NHL pregame model, Dimers' NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, the opposing team, and projected team goals.

Leon Draisaitl of the Oilers leads Saturday's anytime goal-scorer projections at 44.2%, ahead of teammate Connor McDavid (43.8%). Toronto's most likely goal-scorer, Auston Matthews, is further back at 38.9%. McDavid leads the first goal-scorer projections at 8.7%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

• Leon Draisaitl (Oilers): 44.2%
• Connor McDavid (Oilers): 43.8%
• Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 38.9%
• Zach Hyman (Oilers): 38.5%
• William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 38.0%

First goal-scorer predictions

• Connor McDavid (Oilers): 8.7%
• Leon Draisaitl (Oilers): 8.5%
• Zach Hyman (Oilers): 7.5%
• William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 6.8%
• Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 6.4%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Maple Leafs vs. Oilers predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Saturday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets.

See our full range of Maple Leafs vs. Oilers predictions.

Maple Leafs vs. Oilers game details

• Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers
• Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
• Venue: Rogers Place

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NHL models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.