Sharks vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [10/19/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's NHL game between the Sharks and Maple Leafs, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Maple Leafs a 55.5% chance of defeating the Sharks. According to our model, the Sharks (+1.5) have a 65.4% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 51.0% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Sharks +1.5 (-199) / Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190)
• Moneyline: Sharks +122, Maple Leafs -125
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-127/+122)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Maple Leafs -1.5 @ 35¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs @ 56¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 6.5 @ 45¢ via Novig

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Sharks vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Sharks vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 47.3% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

San Jose Sharks

• Macklin Celebrini: 41.5% probability
• Will Smith: 29.9% probability
• Igor Chernyshov: 23.2% probability
• Kiefer Sherwood: 22.3% probability
• Mason Marchment: 21.7% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 47.3% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 34.8% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 31.7% probability
• Darren Raddysh: 25.4% probability
• Gavin McKenna: 24.8% probability

First goal scorer predictions

San Jose Sharks

• Macklin Celebrini: 8.8% probability
• Will Smith: 5.9% probability
• Igor Chernyshov: 4.5% probability
• Kiefer Sherwood: 4.1% probability
• Mason Marchment: 3.7% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 9.5% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 6.8% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 5.6% probability
• Darren Raddysh: 4.1% probability
• Gavin McKenna: 3.9% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Monday's action between the Maple Leafs and Sharks at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: San Jose Sharks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Monday, October 19, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 55.5% win probability, will likely beat the Sharks in Monday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.