Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 7, 2026

The Montreal Canadiens are favored to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction gives Montreal a 52.8% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 6.5 goals.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs key predictions

• Canadiens win probability: 52.8%
• Maple Leafs win probability: 47.2%
• Maple Leafs +1.5 puck line: 68.3% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 51.0% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Canadiens moneyline: -117 (BetRivers)
• Maple Leafs moneyline: 47¢ (Novig)
• Canadiens -1.5: 32¢ (Novig)
• Maple Leafs +1.5: 69¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 53¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 48¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs pick: Under 6.5 (48¢)

Our model makes the Canadiens the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at 48¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 48.0%, while our model puts it at 51.0%.

That's a 3.0% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Cole Caufield of the Canadiens leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Saturday's game at 40.2%, followed by Toronto's William Nylander (37.2%). Caufield also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 8.4%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Cole Caufield (Canadiens): 40.2%
2. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 37.2%
3. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 36.5%
4. Nick Suzuki (Canadiens): 29.0%
5. John Tavares (Maple Leafs): 27.8%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Cole Caufield (Canadiens): 8.4%
2. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 7.3%
3. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 7.3%
4. Nick Suzuki (Canadiens): 5.4%
5. Jack Roslovic (Maple Leafs): 5.1%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs game details

• Matchup: Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.