Two new Lions injuries prompt markets to update Lions-Bears prediction

Two Detroit starters carry injury designations into Thursday night's Week 2 matchup at Highmark Stadium, and the prediction markets have already priced in a comfortable Buffalo edge. Guard Christian Mahogany (knee) and cornerback D.J. Reed (foot) are both listed as questionable for the Lions, while Polymarket traders have the Bills up at 67% and Detroit down at 34%.

Lions Injury Report: Christian Mahogany (Knee) and D.J. Reed (Foot)

Both Detroit players are currently listed as questionable heading into Thursday night.

Christian Mahogany (knee): Mahogany underwent imaging that came back negative following Sunday's 31-30 overtime win over the Saints, per Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News. A clean scan is the best-case scenario for a short turnaround to Thursday, though the questionable tag means his availability may not be settled until close to kickoff. The 25-year-old Boston College product, a 2024 sixth-round pick, is a starter on an interior offensive line that will be dealing with a hostile road environment in Orchard Park.

D.J. Reed (foot): Reed was limited during Tuesday's practice, per Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site. The 29-year-old Kansas State product opened his 2026 campaign with seven solo tackles and a pass defensed in Week 1. On a short week, a limited practice session is the only real data point available before game day — and any absence in Detroit's secondary is meaningful against a Buffalo offense that put up 36 points in Week 1.

In light of this development, Polymarket traders and our in-house data analysts updated their Bills vs Lions predictions and player stat projections after conducting new simulations that took into account Detroit's roster updates.
The results of Dimers’ simulations were compared to updated sportsbook odds to compile the data-driven Lions-Bills preview below.

Live Polymarket Odds: Lions vs Bills

The embed below shows live, real-time Polymarket odds for this matchup. The odds you see here are always current — if either injury designation resolves late, the market moves with it.

Buffalo's contract trades at 67¢ on Polymarket, with Detroit at 34¢. The chart shows a market that sat in a tight band around 60-62% for Buffalo through late August and into early September before a sharp move in the past few days pushed the Bills up to their current 67% — a shift that lines up with the timing of Detroit's injury news hitting the wire. The full game has traded roughly $84,180 in volume across all its markets.

Lions vs Bills Polymarket Game Lines

Beyond the moneyline, Polymarket carries spread and total markets for this game, plus first half, second half, team totals, exact margin, game props, and touchdown scorers.

The spread is the deepest market of the three at $53,300 in volume, and it's priced about as close to a coin flip as it gets — Detroit +4.5 at 50¢ against Buffalo -4.5 at 51¢. That's a notable contrast with the moneyline: traders are confident Buffalo wins, but far less confident they cover. The total sits at 54.5 with the over at 50¢ and the under at 52¢, a nod to two offenses that combined for 67 points in Week 1 wins.

Dimers’ Win Probabilities:

• Lions: 34.1%
• Bills: 65.9%

Polymarket Promo Code “DIMERS” for NFL Markets

Before you jump in, make sure you're taking advantage of the new Polymarket sign-up bonus. New users who register on Polymarket with the promo code DIMERS and deposit $10 will receive a $50 Polymarket sign-up bonus. That Polymarket bonus is applicable for the Lions vs Bills market and other NFL prediction markets on Polymarket.

What Drives Polymarket Odds on an NFL Game?

Polymarket odds on a single-game market like this one are influenced by a range of factors that traders continuously incorporate into their positions:

• Injury designations and inactives: Questionable tags like Mahogany's and Reed's are among the fastest-moving inputs, and the official inactives list roughly 90 minutes before kickoff often triggers the sharpest repricing of the day.
• Practice participation: Full, limited, or did-not-participate reports are the best available signal on a short week, which is why Reed's limited Tuesday session matters to traders.
• Home-field and travel: A Thursday night road game on a short week, in this case in Orchard Park, is consistently priced as a meaningful disadvantage.
• Week 1 performance: Both teams opened with wins, but how they won — Buffalo comfortably, Detroit in overtime — feeds into how traders read each side's true strength.
• Weather: Conditions in Western New York can move the total market quickly, particularly later in the season.

For a deeper dive into how these factors play out across different types of markets, the Dimers prediction market insights hub is worth bookmarking.

Lions vs Bills: How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
• Kickoff: 8:15 PM EDT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
• TV/Stream: Amazon Prime Video
• Week: NFL Week 2

Both teams enter at 1-0. Buffalo opened with a 36-31 win over the Texans, while Detroit needed overtime to edge the Saints 31-30 — the same game in which Mahogany picked up the knee issue.