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Read Article From Super Bowl to Super Bums? Why the Patriots look primed for a brutal 2026 regression
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Can New England survive its 2026 schedule? Key roster gaps and regression indicators point to a post-Super Bowl crash for the Patriots.
New England's run to Super Bowl LX was arguably the biggest NFL betting story of the 2025 season. From a 60/1 or longer preseason winner to a 14-3 record, an AFC East title, and Mike Vrabel's first year on the job delivering the type of result fans in New England came to expect this millennium.
It was also a season that came with some schedule scrutiny that drew more attention over the course of the season. Regardless of preseason NFL predictions, the Patriots' 2025 opponents were among the league's easiest by strength-of-schedule, facing just three opponents that would finish above .500, going 1-2 against those teams.
That cushion is gone in 2026. Having won the division, New England now draws a first-place schedule and has made some moves to prepare for it.
The headline move for New England was the addition of WR A.J. Brown, giving QB Drake Maye a genuine No. 1 receiver for the first time in his young career.
Brown's arrival is meant to answer one major question that lingered even during the 14-3 run: whether the passing game had enough of a ceiling to hold up against top-tier defenses in the playoffs.
Patriots' Super Bowl and AFC East chances
Overall, the Dimers model isn't completely fading the Patriots, giving them a fighting chance in several futures markets.
Dimers' NFL futures predictions give the Patriots a 40.1% probability to win the AFC East at odds of +145. Buffalo remains the favorite at 49.3% (-135). That's a fairly modest game, and New England's floor is helped by a soft in-division schedule against the Jets and Dolphins, effectively setting up a two-horse race.
At the conference level, the Patriots project fifth in the AFC with a 9.8% probability of winning, compared to the Ravens as our most likely AFC champion at 13.2%. That number would actually be the third-highest win probability in the NFC, which speaks to how the two conferences are shaping up.
Our AFC futures probabilities.
There's a 6.1% probability range between Dimers' top AFC team (Baltimore) and its ninth-ranked team (Jacksonville) before probabilities fall off below 5%. The NFC's gap between its first- and third-most-likely conference winners alone is wider than that, suggesting more separation at the top of that conference and more parity in the AFC.
The Super Bowl number follows the same pattern. New England's 4.8% probability to win the Super Bowl ranks seventh overall, but nine teams fall between 4.9% and 4.0%. That places the Patriots more in a crowded second tier of Super Bowl contenders rather than among a fringe top five team.
Predicting the Patriots' full season schedule
Our NFL predictions are up for nearly every game on the Patriots' 2026 schedule, beginning with our Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction in Week 1, with the exception of Weeks 17 and 18. Dimers' game-by-game projections for New England are where the biggest season-to-season drop-off is evident.
| Week | Opponent | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 38.1% |
| 2 | PIT | 69.3% |
| 3 | JAX | 44.6% |
| 4 | BUF | 38.3% |
| 5 | LV | 78.8% |
| 6 | NYJ | 80.6% |
| 7 | CHI | 44.9% |
| 8 | MIA | 72.5% |
| 9 | GB | 57.2% |
| 10 | DET | 45.8% |
| 11 | Bye | — |
| 12 | LAC | 42.9% |
| 13 | BUF | 52.4% |
| 14 | MIN | 66.6% |
| 15 | KC | 41.2% |
| 16 | NYJ | 72.3% |
| 17 | DEN | Not projected |
| 18 | MIA | Not projected |
Those predictions put New England at roughly 8 wins with two games, Denver and Miami, left out due to limited game lines. One of those games is a near coin-flip against Buffalo, which would have major division implications if it doesn't go in New England's favor.
A split of those two would land the Patriots at 9-7, a significant step back from last year's 14-3 and top AFC finish.
For comparison, the Patriots' win total of 9.5 on the sportsbook carries an over at odds of -150, while our model signals a higher chance of going under based on the results above.
That record likely means a wild-card berth at best rather than another division title, and with it, no realistic path to home-field advantage anywhere in the playoffs, a much tougher road back to the Super Bowl than the one that got them there in 2025.
Bet on NFL in 2026 with Dimers Pro
Dimers Pro is your go-to resource for the NFL season, already off to a successful start in college football.
You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.
Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both NFL and college football, as well as all in-season sports during that time.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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