Lions vs. Cardinals prediction: Why Detroit is favored to win in NFL Week 5 [2026]

The Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions are scheduled to meet in Week 5 of the NFL season at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 4:25 PM ET.

Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner in this Lions vs. Cardinals prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Lions vs. Cardinals prediction and odds

Since our Lions-Cardinals predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Lions and Cardinals, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lions a 69.7% chance of defeating the Cardinals in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 29-23.

Key factors favoring the Lions:

• Lions offense
• Lions team rating
• Lions QB situation

According to our model, the Lions (-4.5) have a 54.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 54.5 points has a 53.5% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Cardinals recent performance
• Lions pace

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Lions -4.5 (-108) / Cardinals +4.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Lions -228, Cardinals +223
• Total: Over/Under 54.5 (-104/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Lions -4.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Lions @ 70¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 54.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 54.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Lions vs. Cardinals TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Lions vs. Cardinals?

According to our model, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Lions vs. Cardinals.

Our projections give Gibbs a 71.3% chance of scoring a TD at State Farm Stadium, while the running back is a 19.5% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 71.3% probability
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 55.3%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 34.5%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 30.2%
• Isaac TeSlaa (WR): 17.8%

Arizona Cardinals

• Jeremiyah Love (RB): 46.4% prob.
• Trey McBride (TE): 45.2%
• Michael Wilson (WR): 41.3%
• Tyler Allgeier (RB): 28.0%
• Kendrick Bourne (WR): 19.8%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 19.5% prob.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 12.6%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 6.6%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 5.6%
• Isaac TeSlaa (WR): 3.1%

Arizona Cardinals

• Jeremiyah Love (RB): 9.8% prob.
• Trey McBride (TE): 9.4%
• Michael Wilson (WR): 8.4%
• Tyler Allgeier (RB): 5.2%
• Kendrick Bourne (WR): 3.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Lions and Cardinals. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Lions' Jared Goff is projected to have a big game with 287 passing yards, while the Cardinals' Jacoby Brissett is expected to throw for a whopping 265 yards.

Lions rushing

• Jahmyr Gibbs: 94 yds
• Sione Vaki: 13 yds
• Jared Goff: 4 yds

Cardinals rushing

• Jeremiyah Love: 50 yds
• Tyler Allgeier: 30 yds
• Jacoby Brissett: 12 yds

Lions receiving

• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 87 yds
• Jameson Williams: 59 yds
• Sam LaPorta: 55 yds
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 41 yds
• Isaac TeSlaa: 32 yds

Cardinals receiving

• Michael Wilson: 84 yds
• Trey McBride: 81 yds
• Kendrick Bourne: 39 yds
• Jalen Brooks: 18 yds
• Jeremiyah Love: 16 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 action between the Cardinals and Lions at State Farm Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: State Farm Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 69.7% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.