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THE PLAYERS Championship predictions: Golf picks and best bets
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR continues its Florida swing at TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship, and we reveal the best value bets as identified by the Dimers golf model.
The Dimers golf predictions are back for THE PLAYERS Championship, teeing off on Thursday, March 12 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL and after correctly identifying Akshay Bhatia with live value to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we've got the latest best golf bets to make at golf's unofficial "fifth major" this weekend.
Featuring 47 of the top 50 ranked players in the world in a 123-man field, this week's $25 million purse makes it the richest event on TOUR, with $4.5 million and 750 FedExCup points going to the winner.
MORE: Power Rankings for THE PLAYERS Championship
Last year's champion Rory McIlroy is expected to defend despite withdrawing from the Arnold Palmer Invitational with back spasms, while fellow two-time champion Scottie Scheffler returns in a mild slump by his standards, both looking to tie Jack Nicklaus for the most wins at this event (3).
TPC Sawgrass plays as a par 72 at 7,352 yards and is defined by risk-and-reward decision-making off the tee. Angled fairways force players to flirt with trouble to set up the best approach angles, and those who bail out often pay with difficult second shots into some of the smallest greens on TOUR. Water is adjacent to nearly every hole with an abundance of bunkers, leading to more double bogeys than any non-major venue over each of the past three seasons, meaning accuracy and smart approach play will be defining factors this week.
Regularly down to the wire, five of the last six editions have been decided by one shot or a playoff, so don't be surprised to see another white-knuckle Sunday finish.
Check out Dimer's Head-to-Head Predictor for THE PLAYERS.
PGA THE PLAYERS Championship tournament preview
- Date: March 12-15, 2026
- Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
- Course: TPC Sawgrass
- Par: 72 / 7,352 yards
- Purse: $25 million
- 2025 winner: Rory McIlroy (-12 in playoff)
Based on data from the Dimers golf model, below are the five most likely winners of THE PLAYERS Championship this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
1. Scottie Scheffler — The model makes him a clear favorite despite his mild slump, nearly one-in-five to win and a coin flip to finish top 10. Until someone proves they can beat him consistently, fade Scheffler at your own risk.
2. Rory McIlroy — The defending champion comes in with a back injury cloud hanging over him, but the model still has him as a clear second choice. If he's healthy, his course history and closing ability make him dangerous every round.
3. Tommy Fleetwood — Fleetwood slots in as the model's top value, with a one-in-three shot at a top-10 finish. His precise iron play and composure under pressure make him a natural fit for the demands of Sawgrass.
4. Russell Henley — Henley's current form is the best argument he's ever had to finally break through at a course that has given him fits and our model likes him more than the betting market does.
5. Cameron Young — Young is a quiet one-in-four shot at a top-10 finish and offers solid value if the market is sleeping on him. His length off the tee is a weapon, but his ability to manage the risk-reward decisions at Sawgrass will determine how far up the board he climbs.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 18.0% | 44.5% | 60.5% | 75.2% |
| 2. Rory McIlroy | 7.3% | 24.8% | 38.8% | 56.6% |
| 3. Tommy Fleetwood | 5.2% | 21.2% | 34.0% | 51.3% |
| 4. Russell Henley | 4.2% | 16.3% | 28.3% | 45.5% |
| 5. Cameron Young | 2.6% | 14.3% | 25.6% | 42.0% |
MORE: Dimers' in-house golf rankings
Who will win THE PLAYERS Championship?
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
Tommy Fleetwood to win (+2700 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 5.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +1820 and above
It's easy to be wary of Tommy Fleetwood after looking at last week's result, but based on how he closed 2025 and opened 2026, it looks like more of a hiccup than anything.
Opening with a T4 and T7 this year, Fleetwood stumbled out of the gate, setting up a futile comeback attempt after making the cut at Bay Hill.
He's peaked with a T7 and T5 at TPC Sawgrass and turned in his best finish since 2019 with a T14 last year.
The Dimers model still ranks him as a top contender on the PGA TOUR, as indicated by his 5.2% win probability trailing only the 2x winners Scheffler and McIlroy.
He makes a good target for placement value, with a 51.3% probability to finish Top 20 and odds of +120.
Russell Henley to win (+3000 on BetMGM)
Win probability: 4.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +2280 and above
Henley is coming off a T6 at the Arnold Palmer and has been remarkably consistent this season.
Outside of one missed cut at the Genesis, he hasn't finished outside the Top 20 yet, bagging a pair of Top 10s and his season best last week.
His analytics profile fits Sawgrass well at 44th in the field on approach, and an impressive 7th-ranked in scrambling with all positive numbers around the green. Driving distance is a mild concern, but accuracy matters far more here than length.
TPC Sawgrass has historically presented a challenge for him with six missed cuts in a dozen starts, and a best finish of T13 back in 2022, but his current form is among his best and this could finally be the week it clicks.
Our model has him closer to +2280 fair value against his +3000 odds, and with the way he's playing, his best finish yet at TPC Sawgrass could be in line this week.
Cameron Young to win (boosted to +4000 on Bet365)
Win probability: 2.6%
Dimers' fair odds: +3750 and above
The 28-year old continues to make a name for himself and plant his flag among the contenders, turning in back-to-back Top 10s this year, shooting five of his last seven rounds at 68 or under.
He's never found his groove at TPC Sawgrass, a T51 in his best finish in 2023, but he's entering in arguably his best form after breaking out at the end of last season.
He ranks 6th off the tee in strokes gained and is green across the board with very few negatives to this game.
At 2.6%, he wouldn't be a value at his standard odds of +3500, but we've got ourselves a Dimers exclusive boost at bet365 sportsbook to +4000, giving us a clear edge at +3750 for fair odds.
He also projects as a strong ladder play, with a clear Dimers edge at 42.0% and +185 for a Top 20 (fair at +140), and he's featured in our boosted Top 20 parlay at bet365 as well.
Our enhanced odds on Cameron Young at bet365.
THE PLAYERS Championship longshot bets
Beyond the Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an edge at odds of more than 50/1, setting up longshot bets for outright wins or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
Jake Knapp to win (+5200 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 2.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +4250 and above
Knapp withdrew from the Arnold Palmer with an illness, but that shouldn't be a concern this week, and the extra rest could work in his favor after a scorching stretch of golf to open the year.
His 2026 results speak for themselves: T11, T5, solo 8th, T8, and solo 6th, one of the hottest stretches on TOUR this season.
He ranks 2nd overall in strokes gained and our model prices him closer to +4250, making him a solid value play.
The one area to watch is driving accuracy, which sits slightly below field average, but he's the top-ranked scrambler from the rough in the field, so even when he misses, he tends to recover.
Add in a T12 here last year to improve upon his debut T45 in 2024 , and Knapp looks like a legitimate top-10 contender with upside.
Harry Hall to win (+10000 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 1.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +5450 and above
The Englishman is once again a Dimers longshot after proving at the Arnold Palmer that he can overcome a shaky start, digging out of a first-round 73 to finish 8-under and T9, cashing big for those who grabbed him at plus money odds for Top 20 and Top 10 finishes.
He finds himself in a similar spot here at 100/1, and the Dimers model prices him around +5500, giving him close to double the odds.
The concern is that his analytical weaknesses are exactly what Sawgrass punishes. He's below average on approach and hits dangerously close to the edge of the fairway. Back-to-back missed cuts here align with the course fit questions, but according to our data, he's simply mispriced.
To get the most out of the THE PLAYERS, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
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Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified value on Scottie Scheffler to win and Russell Henley to place Top 10 and Top 20 at the American Express, the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach just last week.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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