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Rays vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Boston Red Sox will face the Tampa Bay Rays in MLB action at Fenway Park on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.
Payton Tolle (1-1, 2.04 ERA) will start on the mound for the Red Sox, up against Nick Martinez (3-1, 1.71 ERA) for the Rays.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Red Sox as the most likely winner of the Rays vs. Red Sox game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Rays vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Rays and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Red Sox a 57% chance of defeating the Rays.
According to our model, the Rays (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52% chance of going over.
Rays vs. Red Sox odds [5/10/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rays | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-165) | -1.5 (+141) |
| Moneyline | +129 | -148 |
| Total | o8.5 (+100) | u8.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rays vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox -1.5 | +141 |
| Moneyline | Rays | +129 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | +100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Rays vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Rays at Fenway Park is scheduled to commence at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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