...
...
Read Article
Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [3/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks predictions for NBA Sunday.
The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder will lock horns in NBA action at American Airlines Center on Sunday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Mavericks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Mavericks lineup will feature stars like Brandon Williams, Max Christie and Khris Middleton, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Mavs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA matchup between the Thunder and Mavericks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Thunder an 87% chance of defeating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 123-110.
According to our model, the Mavericks (+16.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the 236.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Thunder vs. Mavericks odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -16.5 (-105) | +16.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | -1200 | +750 |
| Total | o236.5 (-108) | u236.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Mavericks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks +16.5 | -112 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | +750 |
| Total | Under 236.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +16.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Thunder vs. Mavericks player props
Looking for Oklahoma City vs. Dallas NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at American Airlines Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 30 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Brandon Williams is projected to have 17 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists for the Mavericks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 51 |
| Chet Holmgren | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 39 |
| I. Hartenstein | 11 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 31 |
| Isaiah Joe | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| Cason Wallace | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
Mavericks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mavericks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Williams | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 35 |
| Max Christie | 15 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
| Khris Middleton | 14 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 29 |
| Klay Thompson | 13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| AJ Johnson | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
Thunder vs. Mavs game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Mavericks and Thunder at American Airlines Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 87% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Sunday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 51 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Mavericks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure