Patriots vs. Bills Prediction: Buffalo Predicted to Win in NFL Week 16 [2024]

NFL Week 16 action continues on Sunday at 4:25PM ET as the New England Patriots lock horns with the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts the Bills as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's New England-Buffalo game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Bills with a win probability of 88%, while the Patriots have 12%."

This updated Patriots vs. Bills betting preview builds on my early Patriots vs. Bills prediction that I published at the start of the week.

For a closer look at today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Patriots vs. Bills predictions page.

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Patriots vs. Bills Game-Day Updates and Essential Details

The NFL Week 16 action between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25PM ET.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
• Date: Sunday, December 22, 2024
• Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Tickets: Get tickets for the game on Ticketmaster
• Merchandise: Buy Bills and Patriots gear at Fanatics

Dimers.com's in-depth preview of Sunday's Patriots vs. Bills matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any New England vs. Buffalo picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Patriots vs. Bills Predictions

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Bills 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Bills an 88% chance of defeating the Patriots in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 30-17.

According to our model, the Patriots (+14) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.

In addition to our Patriots vs. Bills predictions, we've also got the following locked and loaded for today’s action:

• NFL Best Bets for Week 16
• NFL Player Props for Week 16
• Touchdown Predictions for Week 16

Patriots vs. Bills Odds

We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Patriots	Bills
Spread	+14 (-110)	-14 (-110)
Moneyline	+810	-1000
Total	o47.5 (-120)	u47.5 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Patriots vs. Bills Picks

Our model's strongest edge in today's Patriots vs. Bills matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the latest odds, reveal the best NFL picks for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Patriots vs. Bills TD Scorers

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs. Bills?

According to our model, Buffalo's Josh Allen is most likely to score the first TD in Patriots vs. Bills.

Our projections give Allen a 12.3% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills QB is a 50.5% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

New England Patriots

Player	First TD Probability
Rhamondre Stevenson	7.3%
Hunter Henry	4.9%
Kendrick Bourne	4.1%

Buffalo Bills

Player	First TD Probability
Josh Allen	12.3%
James Cook	11.7%
Khalil Shakir	7.2%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

New England Patriots

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rhamondre Stevenson	35.4%
Hunter Henry	24.3%
Kendrick Bourne	21.3%

Buffalo Bills

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Josh Allen	50.5%
James Cook	49.5%
Khalil Shakir	34.0%

For a complete analysis of the most likely first and anytime TD scorers this week, see our NFL Week 16 touchdown scorer predictions

Patriots vs Bills Player Props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Bills. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Patriots-Bills page now to access every player prop projection.

Patriots vs. Bills Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Bills' Josh Allen.

Patriots Rushing

Rhamondre Stevenson, Drake Maye and Antonio Gibson are projected to be the leading rushers for the Patriots.

Player	Position
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB
Drake Maye	QB
Antonio Gibson	RB

Bills Rushing

James Cook, Josh Allen and Ray Davis are expected to lead the Bills in rushing yards.

Player	Position
James Cook	RB
Josh Allen	QB
Ray Davis	RB

Patriots Receiving

DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte and Austin Hooper are projected to top the receiving yards for the Patriots.

Player	Position
DeMario Douglas	WR
Kendrick Bourne	WR
Hunter Henry	TE
Kayshon Boutte	WR
Austin Hooper	TE

Bills Receiving

Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins are projected to lead the Bills in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Khalil Shakir	WR
Amari Cooper	WR
Dalton Kincaid	TE
Keon Coleman	WR
Mack Hollins	WR

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with an 88% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 16 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Patriots vs. Bills insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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