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Lakers vs. Rockets prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Game 3 [2026 NBA Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets predictions for NBA Playoffs Friday.
The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers are scheduled to meet in Game 3 of their NBA Playoffs series at Toyota Center on Friday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Lakers vs. Rockets Game 3 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature stars like Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, while the Lakers will rely on LeBron James, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura.
Luka Doncic will miss the game though with the Slovenian star out for this one.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Lakers vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win Game 3?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Lakers and Rockets, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Rockets a 73% chance of defeating the Lakers in Game 3 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 107-100.
According to our model, the Lakers (+8.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 207-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Lakers vs. Rockets Game 3 odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lakers | Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-108) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +260 | -320 |
| Total | o207 (-110) | u207 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lakers vs. Rockets picks and best bet for Game 3
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lakers +8.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Rockets | -320 |
| Total | Over 207 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Lakers +8.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lakers vs. Rockets Game 3 player props
Looking for Lakers vs. Rockets NBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.
LeBron James is expected to lead the Lakers with 24 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 27 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Rockets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Lakers prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Lakers are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 24 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 53 |
| Austin Reaves | 19 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 37 |
| Rui Hachimura | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 26 |
| Luke Kennard | 12 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| Marcus Smart | 12 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
Rockets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 27 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 48 |
| Alperen Sengun | 21 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 48 |
| Amen Thompson | 20 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 45 |
| Jabari Smith | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Reed Sheppard | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
Lakers vs. Rockets Game 3 updates and essential details
Friday's Game 3 between the Rockets and Lakers in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Friday, April 24, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to determine the league's champion.
A total of 16 teams, including the Lakers and Rockets, reached the NBA Playoffs 2026, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat the Lakers in Friday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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