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Texans vs. Steelers prediction: Why Houston is favored to win Wild Card game [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions for NFL Monday.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans will meet on Wild Card weekend of the NFL Playoffs at Acrisure Stadium on Monday, with kickoff at 8:15 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Texans as the most likely winner of the Texans vs. Steelers game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Texans vs. Steelers prediction: Who will win ‘Monday Night Football’?
Since our Texans-Steelers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL matchup between the Texans and Steelers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Texans a 63% chance of beating the Steelers. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 20-17.
According to our model, the Texans (-2.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 38.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 19 straight up picks.
Texans vs. Steelers odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Texans | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-128) | +2.5 (+104) |
| Moneyline | -150 | +136 |
| Total | o38.5 (-105) | u38.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Texans vs. Steelers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans -2.5 | -128 |
| Moneyline | Texans | -150 |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -105 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texans to win.
Texans vs. Steelers TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Steelers?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for MNF, Nico Collins is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Texans vs. Steelers.
Our projections give Collins a 36.6% chance of scoring a TD at Acrisure Stadium, while the wide receiver is a 10.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Houston Texans
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins (WR) | 36.6% |
| Woody Marks (RB) | 33.3% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 23.7% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 20.8% |
| Christian Kirk (WR) | 12.7% |
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren (RB) | 35.3% |
| Kenneth Gainwell (RB) | 33.8% |
| DK Metcalf (WR) | 31.3% |
| Pat Freiermuth (TE) | 20.2% |
| Jonnu Smith (TE) | 13.5% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Houston Texans
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins (WR) | 10.1% |
| Woody Marks (RB) | 9.0% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 6.0% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 5.2% |
| Christian Kirk (WR) | 3.0% |
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren (RB) | 9.0% |
| Kenneth Gainwell (RB) | 8.5% |
| DK Metcalf (WR) | 7.8% |
| Pat Freiermuth (TE) | 4.7% |
| Jonnu Smith (TE) | 3.0% |
Texans vs Steelers player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Steelers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 19 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 231 passing yards. The Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw for 211 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 231 |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | 211 |
Texans rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 60 |
| Nick Chubb | 16 |
| C.J. Stroud | 14 |
Steelers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 55 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 30 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 |
Texans receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 74 |
| Dalton Schultz | 45 |
| Jayden Higgins | 35 |
| Christian Kirk | 25 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 20 |
Steelers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 57 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 33 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 33 |
| Adam Thielen | 19 |
| Calvin Austin | 19 |
Texans vs. Steelers game-day updates and essential details
Monday's matchup between the Steelers and Texans at Acrisure Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:15 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Monday, January 12, 2026
- Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Texans, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Steelers on Monday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Texans vs. Steelers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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