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Warriors vs. Suns prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Friday's NBA Play-In matchup [4/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns predictions for NBA Friday.
The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors will lock horns in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament at Mortgage Matchup Center on Friday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Suns as the most likely winner of the Warriors vs. Suns game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Suns lineup will feature players like Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks, while the Warriors will be led by Stephen Curry, Kristaps Porzingis and Brandin Podziemski.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Warriors vs. Suns prediction: Who will win NBA Play-In game?
As part of Dimers' NBA predictions coverage—featuring a deep dive into who will advance to the NBA playoffs—our pregame model has generated moneyline, spread, and over/under probabilities for Friday's clash between the Warriors and Suns.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Suns a 58% chance of beating the Warriors. Our predicted final score has the Suns winning 111-108.
According to our model, the Warriors (+3) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 219.5 points has a 51% chance of going over.
Warriors vs. Suns odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Warriors | Suns |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3 (-110) | -3 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -142 |
| Total | o219.5 (-108) | u219.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Warriors vs. Suns picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Warriors +3 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Suns | -142 |
| Total | Over 219.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Warriors +3 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Warriors vs. Suns player props
NBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on Friday's Warriors vs. Suns matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Stephen Curry is expected to lead the Warriors with 27 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists, while Devin Booker is projected to have 29 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists for the Suns.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Warriors prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Warriors are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 27 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 46 |
| K. Porzingis | 18 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 34 |
| B. Podziemski | 16 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 34 |
| Gui Santos | 14 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 31 |
| Gary Payton | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
Suns prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Suns:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 29 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 49 |
| Jalen Green | 22 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 39 |
| Dillon Brooks | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Grayson Allen | 12 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| Mark Williams | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
Warriors vs. Suns game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Suns and Warriors at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
- Date: Friday, April 17, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
The NBA Play-In Tournament involves the teams that ranked 7th through 10th in each conference, including the Warriors and Suns, fighting for a spot in this year's NBA Playoffs.
The winner of the Golden State vs. Phoenix matchup will advance to NBA_2025_179_PHX_GSW.
Conclusion
We predict the Suns, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Warriors in Friday's NBA Play-In Tournament matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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