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NBA play-in predictions, best bets in Hornets-Magic, Warriors-Suns on Friday, April 17
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The NBA play-in tournament concludes on Friday night, with the 8-sseds up for grabs in each conference, and we analyze the best betting angles in each game from the Dimers model.
The NBA Play-In Tournament concludes on Friday, April 17, with two high-stakes elimination matchups determining the last two playoff seeds in each conference. In the East, the Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic meet in a winner-take-all battle for the No. 8 seed. Out West, it's a Steph Curry elimination game as the Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns.
Dimers' NBA Best Bets went 4-for-4 on spreads in the first round of the play-in, including a notable edge on the Warriors to both cover and pull off the upset in their opening game.
All four correct calls shared a common thread with an edge above the line set by the market. That's important context heading into Friday's card, where the model's signals look meaningfully different game to game.
Both games on Friday feature teams carrying different emotional momentum into a single decisive night, so let's see what the Dimers data reveals about each game, as well as the best player prop bets to consider.
NBA play-in predictions and prop bets
Hornets vs. Magic play-in preview
The Hornets carry the momentum of a dramatic Miami Heat upset into tonight's game, though it's worth noting how they got there: Bam Adebayo barely played after an early injury, and Charlotte still only barely escaped in overtime.
The Magic, meanwhile, were underwhelming in a big spot and their vaunted defense didn't hold up against a Philadelphia 76ers squad that wasn't even fully healthy.
From a model standpoint, this one is slim on actionable edges at the game level.
The 3.5-point spread and 218.5 total sit near a 50/50 toss up and neither side presents the kind of clear value the model identified in the first four play-in games.
Our 62% Hornets win probability is meaningful, but it comes without an edge, which was present in our Warriors and Sixers ML wins in the first games.
Where the model does find an edge is in the props, and the signals here point in two very specific directions: rebounds and cold shooting.
Hornets vs. Magic player prop targets:
Kon Knueppel Under 1.5 three-pointers
The Rookie of the Year favorite, Knueppel was been benched for cold shooting vs. the Heat, continuing a troubling trend from beyond the arc, going 19-for-61 from deep over his last nine games.
Charlotte coaching staff already pulled him in the Miami game when he went 0-for-6 from three and if he starts cold again, he could find himself out of it again.
We projects 2.9 made threes, but also a 35% probability of going under the alternate line of 1.5 available on Fanatics Sportsbook with a 7% Dimers edge.
Rebound props
LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel all project for positive rebound numbers tonight, with prop edges ranging from 9 to 16% at varying standard and alternate lines.
Charlotte ranked top-three defensively in opponent rebounds this season, and Orlando allowed double-digit boards to two players in their 76ers loss, with Wendell Carter Jr. the only Magic player pulling down more than six.
The Hornets are a three-heavy team that bricked shots all night against Miami, and against a top three-point defensive unit, more rebound opportunities could be on the way.
Warriors vs. Suns play-in preview
Phoenix had their game on Tuesday and let it slip. Golden State, led by a Steph Curry fourth-quarter performance that looked like 2016 all over again, came storming back from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit.
The setup here closely mirrors what it flagged in the Warriors' first play-in win, a spread edge for the underdog and a greater-than-50% probability for the team getting the points, which is precisely the same combination that produced all four correct spread calls to open the tournament.
The Warriors carry clear model value at both the 2.5 and 3.5-point lines on most books, and for bettors who believe in the Steph Curry elimination game track record, our 42% win probability doesn't carry value, but shows a substantial upset chance.
The Suns are the more complete team on paper, Golden State was the only play-in team to finish under .500 in the regular season, but Steph Curry does not approach elimination games the way he approaches a regular season contests, and the data points to a close one with the 8-seed on the line.
Warriors vs. Suns player prop targets:
Stephen Curry Over 5.5 three-pointers
If you're backing the Warriors, it almost certainly comes with a great Steph Curry game attached, as he proved once again in his latest elimination game performance.
His play-in opener was a reminder that the elite version of Curry still exists, with 35 points and 7 threes.
We have a 36% probability of Curry going over an alternate line of 5.5 threes and at odds of +225 on Fanatics, we get around a 6% edge.
Dillon Brooks Over 16.5 points
Brooks has scored at least 22 points in all three meetings with Golden State this season and he is our highest-probability prop target in this game, with Dimers projecting him nearly four points above his line of 16.5 at 20.1 points.
He profiles as a potential points ladder target with a clear misprice identified by the Dimers data at his base line, and a projection in plus-money territory.
NBA betting resources for the 2026 playoffs
- NBA Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every NBA matchup, every day.
- NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
- NBA Finals Odds: Who will win the championship?
- Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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