Fade the Public: Why the Panthers Are the Smart Play in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final

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Written by Nick Slade
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
We put every effort into ensuring information on Dimers is accurate. But double-check details that matter to you before making any wager.

Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final takes place tonight when the Oilers face the Panthers, but are we in for an upset? Nick Slade investigates.

NHL, Stanley Cup Final, Oilers, Panthers, betting, data, parlay
Underdog Florida is +115 on the moneyline, despite being nearly even when it comes to win probability.

Let’s cut through the noise: the Edmonton Oilers are the media darlings heading into Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final. They’re playing at home, laying -130 on the moneyline, and the headlines are full of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl hype. But if you're riding with the crowd, you're probably going to lose your shirt - and Dimers Pro subscribers already know why.

Despite the Oilers being heavy favorites, Dimers' predictive model - a machine that simulates games 10,000 times - gives Edmonton just a 53% chance of winning. That’s not dominance. That’s margin-of-error territory. The Panthers? 47%. Practically even. And yet, you’re paying a premium on Edmonton at odds of -130 like they are a lock.

This is where smart bettors make their money: fade the public narrative, trust the math.

Florida, on the other hand, is +115 on the moneyline despite being nearly even in win probability. That’s what sharp bettors call positive expected value (+EV) - a chance to win more often than the odds suggest. But it gets better.

Dimers Pro’s player prop model has been tracking player-level NHL trends like a hawk.

Want a same-game parlay? Sure, here’s a three-leg banger:

  • Sam Bennett Anytime Goal (+285), who has scored in 7 of his last 13
  • Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 Assists (+105), hitting in 7 of his last 10
  • Aaron Ekblad Over 0.5 Points (+100), a mark he's cleared in 15 of his last 19

SGP parlay odds will vary by sportsbook, but will likely be in the range of +1400 to +1800 when using a bet365 Sportsbook promo code.

That’s not just gambling. That’s leveraging insight casuals don’t have.

Look, we get it. McDavid is the best player on the planet. Draisaitl is a machine. But hockey is the most chaotic of the major sports. Hot goalies steal games. Underdogs ride momentum. And sportsbook apps cash in on bias. You know who doesn’t fall for that?

Our Dimers Pro model, which sees through the glitz and shows you the play that hurts the books the most. And right now new users can get 20% off their first month by using "20HOCKEY" at checkout.

Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20HOCKEY
Get Dimers Pro

Game 1 is a trap. Don't take the bait. Don’t pay for the hype around Edmonton. Take the Panthers at +115, tail smart player props, and watch the public scramble when Florida goes up 1-0.

If you want to be early on sharp angles like this every day - not just in hockey, but across the NFL, college football, MLB, NBA, WNBA and more - it’s time to join Dimers Pro.

It's the best way to stop betting like a casual and start winning like a pro

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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Jason Bevilacqua as part of our fact-checking process.
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Written by
Nick Slade
Chief Content Officer

Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.

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