Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 10, 2026

The Colorado Avalanche are favored to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs prediction gives Colorado a 59.6% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 6.5 goals.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs key predictions

• Avalanche win probability: 59.6%
• Maple Leafs win probability: 40.3%
• Maple Leafs +1.5 puck line: 61.8% cover probability
• Over 6.5 goals: 50.1% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Avalanche moneyline: -159 (BetRivers)
• Maple Leafs moneyline: 39¢ (Novig)
• Avalanche -1.5: 40¢ (Novig)
• Maple Leafs +1.5: 61¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 54¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 46¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs pick: Under 6.5 (46¢)

Our model makes the Avalanche the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at 46¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 46.5%, while our model puts it at 49.9%.

That's a 3.4% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Nathan MacKinnon of the Avalanche leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Tuesday's game at 42.1%, followed by Toronto's William Nylander (36.8%). MacKinnon also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 8.1%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche): 42.1%
2. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 36.8%
3. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 36.7%
4. Martin Necas (Avalanche): 35.0%
5. Artturi Lehkonen (Avalanche): 32.2%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche): 8.1%
2. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 7.1%
3. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 6.7%
4. Martin Necas (Avalanche): 6.7%
5. John Tavares (Maple Leafs): 5.9%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs game details

• Matchup: Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Tuesday, November 10, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena
• Tournament details: 2026 NBA Cup

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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