Canada vs. Morocco Round of 16 match preview presented by PROLINE+

The second stage of World Cup knockout rounds begins today with the Round of 16, and Dimers' experts have calculated the updated win probabilities and edges for the matchup between Canada and Morocco at NRG Stadium on Saturday, July 4.

Both Canada and Morocco snuck through the last round off a 92nd-minute winner for Canada over South Africa, and a penalty shootout win for Morocco over Netherlands. Now, Canada enter as the biggest underdog they've been so far in the tournament.

In partnership with PROLINE+, Dimers Pro users have access to expert analysis for Canada's next match to detail the latest probabilities and best bets, and have a complete look at the official player list for the Canadian side.

The New PROLINE App has more sports, more markets and more ways to same game parlay. 

Canada's playing squad for the Tournament

Here is the confirmed roster for Canada:

Canada

Goalkeepers: Dayne St. Clair (Inter Miami), Maxime Crépeau (Orlando City), Owen Goodman (Barnsley)

Defenders: Moïse Bombito (Nice), Derek Cornelius (Rangers), Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich), Luc De Fougerolles (FCV Dender), Alistair Johnston (Celtic), Alfie Jones (Middlesbrough), Richie Laryea (Toronto FC), Niko Sigur (Hajduk Split), Joel Waterman (Chicago Fire)

Midfielders: Ali Ahmed (Norwich City), Tajon Buchanan (Villarreal), Mathieu Choinière (LAFC), Stephen Eustáquio (LAFC), Marcelo Flores (Tigres UANL), Ismaël Koné (Sassuolo), Liam Millar (Hull City), Jonathan Osorio (Toronto FC), Nathan Saliba (Anderlecht), Jacob Shaffelburg (LAFC)

Forwards: Jonathan David (Juventus), Promise David (Royale-Union Saint Gilloise), Cyle Larin (Southampton), Tani Oluwaseyi (Villarreal)

Manager: Jesse Marsch

Injury notes: Ismaël Koné has been ruled out of the tournament after suffering a broken leg in the Qatar match.

Canada vs. Morocco predictions and picks including the most likely exact score

Leveraging our updated data and the confirmed list of players, we have run the calculations for this fixture. Here are the latest insights:

• Win probabilities: Canada 18.6 %, Morocco 54.6%, Draw 26.8%
• Both teams to score: Yes 39.4%, No 60.6%
• Total goals (2.5): Under 63.0%, Over 37.0%
• Win to nil: Canada 12.0%, Morocco 37.2%
• Double chance (win or draw): Canada 45.4%, Morocco 81.4%
• Most likely final score: 1-0 Morocco (16.5%)

These projections represent the highest probability outcomes based on the projected team sheets for Canada and Morocco.

Canada vs. Morocco picks and best bet

With a low-scoring game expected to be controlled by Morocco, the Dimers model finds the best edge and highest probability plays in the Both Teams to Score: No market, as well as the Under 2.5 goals.

A Canada upset is in play, but is priced right around fair odds, with no particular betting edge. Should Canada win, our model says it is most likely to be with a score of 1-0 at an 8.2% probability.

Dimers will be providing best bets all tournament long, with the early edge on this game being on Both Teams to Score.

As well as being the most likely winner of the game, the edge on Canada's odds also provides the best value for bettors.

Why use PROLINE+ when betting on Canada vs. Morocco

If you're backing our Canada ML pick, PROLINE+ is our recommended Canadian sportsbook, with 100% of proceeds reinvested directly back into Ontario.

Canada vs. Morocco World Cup details

The FIFA World Cup matchup between Canada and Morocco is scheduled for July 4, 2026.

• Teams: Morocco vs. Canada
• Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: NRG Stadium
• Tournament odds: Who will win the World Cup?

Conclusion: Canada vs. Morocco prediction

Our World Cup predictions for this matchup suggest that Canada to win is the least likely outcome, with a Morocco victory in a little over 50% of simulations.

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