Alyssa Thomas WNBA MVP Chances Gain Steam Amid Latest Record-Setting Achievement

After spending the first decade of her career with the Connecticut Sun, veteran Alyssa Thomas was traded to the team she just lost to in the postseason, the Phoenix Mercury. As a staple of Dimers Best WNBA Props and a frequent leader in our WNBA Projections this season, Thomas has now shot up the WNBA MVP odds board.

The Sun, mired in ownership uncertainty and eventually up for sale were a sinking ship and have settled in at the bottom of the league. Meanwhile, behind Thomas' MVP-level play, the Mercury are among the best teams in the league.

Alyssa Thomas' Case for WNBA MVP

Thomas has finished in the top five in MVP voting for the past three seasons, as high as second (2023) and this year, her case is as strong as ever.

Alongside other offseason acquisition Satou Sabally, Thomas helped transform the team into an elite contender almost overnight. Phoenix opened the season as a +1800 long shot to win the WNBA Finals and we highlighted their big value in Dimers' predictions.

Today, they’re firmly in the mix at +700 with Dimers' third-highest win probability of 10.9%, thanks largely to Thomas’ all-around dominance. She leads the league in assists at 9.1 per game — well ahead of second-place Courtney Williams (6.4) and her previous career high (7.9)— while ranking third in rebounds (8.7) and sitting among the league’s top 15 scorers (career-best 15.9). Her impact is everywhere: pushing the pace of the game, setting the table, and elevating everyone around her - just as an MVP does.

Already the league's all-time leader in triple doubles with16, Thomas became the first player in WNBA history to record three consecutive triple-doubles, capped by an 18-11-10 masterpiece against Indiana on August 7th. It was a milestone that underscored what has made her so valuable this year — versatility that bends the game in Phoenix’s favor every night. Naturally, she consistently projects atop the Dimers WNBA Projections as a top PRA contributor each night.

Thomas' top-of-the-board projections the night she recorded her third-straight triple double.

After being a longshot value all season, her MVP candidacy has surged accordingly.

On August 1, Thomas sat at +700 odds behind heavy favorite Napheesa Collier (-1100). But in the midst of her record-setting stretch and with Collier now sidelined by an ankle injury for at least two weeks, Thomas’ odds have rocketed to +260, firmly positioning her as the top contender to the season-long favorite. Not to mention, that in a race defined by injuries this season, Thomas has missed just a handful of games back in June.

The Triple Crown in Sight

What makes this story particularly special is the sudden alignment of the last accomplishments missing from her Hall of Fame-worthy career. Thomas has checked nearly every box in her career: perennial playoff runs, statistical milestones, all-league honors, and the league’s triple-double crown But the big three — regular season MVP, Finals MVP, and a championship ring — have always eluded her. Now in 2025, with the Mercury primed for a deep postseason run, everything is lining up for Thomas to seize them all.

From the wreckage of the Sun’s collapse to setting more records in Phoenix, Alyssa Thomas’ MVP campaign is the true defining story of the WNBA season.

We wrote about why Alyssa Thomas is a great candidate for WNBA Finals MVP at +1000 and why the Phoenix Mercury were an early-season value bet - now it's time to see it all come together.

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After spending the first decade of her career with the Connecticut Sun, veteran Alyssa Thomas was traded to the team she just lost to in the postseason, the Phoenix Mercury.

The Sun, mired in ownership uncertainty and eventually up for sale were a sinking ship and have settled in at the bottom of the league. Meanwhile, behind Thomas' MVP-level play, the Mercury are among the best teams in the league.

Alyssa Thomas' Case for WNBA MVP

Alongside other offseason acquisition Satou Sabally, Thomas helped transform the team into an elite contender almost overnight. Phoenix opened the season as a +1800 long shot to win the WNBA Finals and a big value in Dimers' predictions.

Today, they’re firmly in the mix at +700 with Dimers' third-highest win probability of 10.9%, thanks largely to Thomas’ all-around dominance. She leads the league in assists at 9.1 per game — well ahead of second-place Courtney Williams (6.4) and her previous career high (7.9)— while ranking third in rebounds (8.7) and sitting among the league’s top 15 scorers (career-best 15.9). Her impact is everywhere: pushing the pace of the game, setting the table, and elevating everyone around her - just as an MVP does.

Already the league's all-time leader in triple doubles with, Thomas became the first player in WNBA history to record three consecutive triple-doubles, capped by an 18-11-10 masterpiece against Indiana on August 7th. It was a milestone that underscored what has made her so valuable this year — versatility that bends the game in Phoenix’s favor every night. Naturally, she consistently projects atop the Dimers WNBA projections as a top PRA contributor each night.

After being a longshot value all season, her MVP candidacy has surged accordingly.

On August 1, Thomas sat at +700 odds behind heavy favorite Napheesa Collier (-1100). But in the midst of her record-setting stretch and with Collier now sidelined by an ankle injury for at least two weeks, Thomas’ odds have rocketed to +260, firmly positioning her as the top contender to the season-long favorite. Not to mention, that in a race defined by injuries this season, Thomas has missed just a handful of games back in June.

The Triple Crown in Sight

What makes this story particularly special is the sudden alignment of the last accomplishments missing from her Hall of Fame-worthy career. Thomas has checked nearly every box in her career: perennial playoff runs, statistical milestones, all-league honors, and the league’s triple-double crown. But the big three — regular season MVP, Finals MVP, and a championship ring — have always eluded her. Now in 2025, with the Mercury primed for a deep postseason run, everything is lining up for Thomas to seize them all.

From the wreckage of the Sun’s collapse to setting more records in Phoenix, Alyssa Thomas’ MVP campaign is the true defining story of the WNBA season.