Tempo vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [8/29/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA matchup between the Tempo and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 73.4% chance of beating the Tempo.

According to our model, the Tempo (+7.5) have a 55.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 52.1% chance of going over.

Tempo vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Tempo +7.5 (+100) / Mercury -7.5 (-113)
• Moneyline: Tempo +300, Mercury -317

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Tempo vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Tempo +7.5 @ +100 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Tempo @ +300 via Novig
• Total: Over 172.5 @ +113 via Novig

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 172.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Tempo vs. Mercury player props

WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Tempo vs. Mercury game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Kiki Rice is expected to lead the Tempo with 17 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists, while Alyssa Thomas is projected to have 13 points, 8 rebounds and 9 assists for the Mercury.

For early game action, the data identifies Kiki Rice as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Tempo prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Tempo are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kiki Rice	17	4	4	2	31
I. Harrison	13	8	2	1	32
Laura Juskaite	11	6	2	1	27
Kia Nurse	9	3	2	2	19
Temi Fagbenle	7	5	2	1	20

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Alyssa Thomas	13	8	9	0	42
Alexa Held	11	3	3	3	23
Natasha Mack	8	7	1	0	23
Sami Whitcomb	8	3	3	2	19
Noemie Brochant	8	3	2	1	18

Tempo vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Mercury and Tempo at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Saturday, August 29, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 73.4% win probability, will likely beat the Tempo in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.