NFL MVP: Week 4 Update, Picks and Bets


October 6, 2020 4:23 AM

We’re four weeks into the NFL season and despite a hiccup or two along the way, we can be reasonably confident we’re getting a season and all of the awards that come with it.

A month into the season is the perfect time to check-in with the MVP race and where value could be cashed in on come the end of 2020.

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At the start of the season, we put forward Russell Wilson as our top pick for the MVP and at this rate we’re looking pretty good! 

Check out our updated plays and predictions below โฌ‡๏ธ


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๐Ÿˆ Russell Wilson (+200)

Our pre-season MVP article put Russ forward as the best bet you could make at +800 odds and boy has he delivered so far. He has been given the freedom to cook in all four games so far this season and doesn’t look like slowing down. 

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Now probably isn’t the best time to put money on him with his odds in so much, but he’s the most likely guy to win it at this stage.

๐Ÿˆ Patrick Mahomes II (+300)

Mahomes was somehow flying under the radar when it came to MVP discussion, and then he completely dominated against Jackson and the Ravens.

The reigning Super Bowl MVP is the best QB in the league and if he dials in for the rest of the season, will push Russ for the award. Another guy that isn’t presenting quite enough value as of now, watch for his odds to drift at some point and bet on him then.

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๐Ÿˆ Aaron Rodgers (+700)

Rodgers is already a two-time MVP and has started this season in some of his best ever form. With the way he’s playing, he could definitely still be in the race at the end of the season, depending on how various storylines are pushed for him and the other top threats.

๐Ÿˆ Josh Allen (+900)

Bills fans entered this season with a few wishes, none more so than for Josh Allen to take the leap to superstar. One month in, he’s right there.

Allen has thrown for 12 TDs and rushed for three more so far this season, which is right up there with the opening month of the last three MVP winners’ seasons. The Bills look an absolute lock for the AFC East and if they can finish with 13+ wins, the MVP talk will only grow for Josh Allen.

JA17 has games coming up against both Wilson and Mahomes which we are flagging as vital to the MVP race. If he can perform to their level in those matchups, +900 will be looking like a steal!

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๐Ÿ’ฐ The Sleepers

๐Ÿˆ Lamar Jackson (16/1)

The 2019 MVP was looking like a serious chance to repeat until he came up against a rampant Mahomes, seeing his odds fly out from around +400 to the +1600 we’re getting today.

But how much does that head-to-head loss matter in the MVP race? Well, that’s up to you. Jackson’s regular season record against the Chiefs sits at 0-3 compared to a ridiculous 21-1 against the rest of the league. He won the award last year despite losing out to Kansas City, so he has form. 

If Lamar gets back to his absolute best, that loss will be viewed as a blip as he soars back into MVP contention.

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๐Ÿˆ Kyler Murray (29/1)

One of our favorite underdog picks before the season started, Kyler kicked off 2020 hot, taking out the favored 49ers and fast becoming everyone’s favorite dark horse pick. It may be a season or two early for Kyler with guys like Mahomes and Wilson in the form that the are, but you could do much worse than 29/1 on a guy who is entertaining as all hell to watch and is only set to get better as the season goes on.


๐Ÿ”ฎ Bets for the brave

๐Ÿˆ Alvin Kamara (50/1)

In our pre-season MVP article, we flagged Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry as the best chances to spoil the QB MVP party, but things change fast! McCaffrey is out hurt and Henry started the season with two poor games. 

Alvin Kamara on the other hand has stepped up as arguably the premium RB in the world, putting up 4 TDs in as many games to open the season.

The Saints haven’t set the world alight as of yet, but if they can pick up the pace when it comes to wins, we like Kamara to get all the MVP hype over Drew Brees.

๐Ÿˆ Aaron Donald (100/1)

Aaron Donald is the walking embodiment of why QB dominance in the MVP can suck at times. Donald is the best at what he does and by some margin. 

We picked out the star defensive tackle at these exact same odds pre-season and are happy to stick with it. Donald has not done any harm to his chances or his reputation and looks set to cruise to his third DPOY title, so why can’t he win the MVP while he’s at it?

+10000 or 100/1 is simply too high and if talk can increase around his importance to the Rams chances of keeping up with Russ and the Seahawks in the NFC West, we could see a defensive player take out the AP MVP for the first time in almost 35 years.

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All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook