Lakers vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA game on March 5, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA sport icon
NBA
Lakers
113
120
Ball Arena
Nuggets
Ball Arena
TEAM1234T
Lakers
22 32 50 9 113
Nuggets
32 32 46 10 120
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lakers
    1%
  • Nuggets
    99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Lakers
22 32 50 9 113
Nuggets
32 32 46 10 120
Q4 00:01 Luka Doncic misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:07 Jake LaRavia makes two point layup
Q4 00:19 Marcus Smart misses two point tip layup
Q4 00:20 Luka Doncic misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:22 Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:34 Jamal Murray misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:57 Marcus Smart misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:12 Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:29 Lakers misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:45 Nuggets makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:00
    Jamal Murray defensive rebound
  3. Q4 00:01
    Luka Doncic misses three point jump shot
  4. Q4 00:06
    Jake LaRavia personal foul
  5. Q4 00:06
    +1
    Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    113-118
  6. Q4 00:06
    +1
    Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    113-120
  7. Q4 00:07
    Nuggets 60 second timeout
  8. Q4 00:07
    +2
    Jake LaRavia makes two point layup
    113-118
  9. Q4 00:15
    Luka Doncic personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
  10. Q4 00:15
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    113-118
  11. Q4 00:15
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    113-120
  12. Q4 00:17
    Nuggets 60 second timeout
  13. Q4 00:17
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic)
  14. Q4 00:17
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura)
  15. Q4 00:17
    Lakers personal foul
  16. Q4 00:19
    Marcus Smart misses two point tip layup
  17. Q4 00:19
    Marcus Smart offensive rebound
  18. Q4 00:19
    Jamal Murray defensive rebound
  19. Q4 00:20
    Luka Doncic misses three point jump shot
  20. Q4 00:22
    +2
    Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot
    111-116
  21. Q4 00:22
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Zeke Nnaji, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray)
  22. Q4 00:22
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura)
  23. Q4 00:22
    Lakers 60 second timeout
  24. Q4 00:31
    Bruce Brown offensive rebound
  25. Q4 00:34
    Jamal Murray misses three point jump shot
  26. Q4 00:54
    Bruce Brown defensive rebound
  27. Q4 00:57
    Marcus Smart misses three point jump shot
  28. Q4 1:09
    Luka Doncic defensive rebound
  29. Q4 1:12
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  30. Q4 1:26
    Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
  31. Q4 1:29
    Lakers misses three point jump shot
  32. Q4 1:45
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    113-120
  33. Q4 2:03
    Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
  34. Q4 2:05
    Nuggets personal foul
  35. Q4 2:05
    Austin Reaves misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  36. Q4 2:05
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Jaxson Hayes, Marcus Smart, LeBron James)
  37. Q4 2:05
    +1
    Austin Reaves makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    113-120
  38. Q4 2:08
    Nikola Jokic turnover
  39. Q4 2:28
    Nuggets defensive rebound
  40. Q4 2:29
    Lakers misses two point jump shot
  41. Q4 2:36
    Nuggets personal foul
  42. Q4 2:36
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic)
  43. Q4 2:41
    Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound
  44. Q4 2:44
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  45. Q4 3:04
    Stoppage (Other)
  46. Q4 3:06
    +2
    Rui Hachimura makes two point jump shot
    110-112
  47. Q4 3:15
    Luka Doncic defensive rebound
  48. Q4 3:19
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  49. Q4 3:45
    +2
    Jaxson Hayes makes two point jump shot
    110-112
  50. Q4 3:58
    Marcus Smart personal foul (Julian Strawther draws the foul)
  51. Q4 3:58
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Jaxson Hayes, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura)
  52. Q4 3:58
    Lakers 60 second timeout
  53. Q4 3:58
    +1
    Julian Strawther makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    113-120
  54. Q4 3:58
    +1
    Julian Strawther makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    113-120
  55. Q4 4:05
    +2
    LeBron James makes two point jump shot
    110-112
  56. Q4 4:22
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    104-110
  57. Q4 4:53
    +3
    Lakers makes three point jump shot
    104-108
  58. Q4 5:04
    Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
  59. Q4 5:06
    Luka Doncic personal foul
  60. Q4 5:06
    +1
    Christian Braun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    101-108
  61. Q4 5:06
    Christian Braun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  62. Q4 5:16
    Bruce Brown defensive rebound
  63. Q4 5:21
    Lakers misses three point jump shot
  64. Q4 5:34
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James)
  65. Q4 5:34
    Lakers 60 second timeout
  66. Q4 5:36
    +3
    Julian Strawther makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
    110-112
  67. Q4 5:53
    +2
    Lakers makes two point jump shot
    110-112
  68. Q4 6:11
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    110-112
  69. Q4 6:22
    Bruce Brown defensive rebound
  70. Q4 6:24
    Luka Doncic misses two point jump shot
  71. Q4 6:42
    Luka Doncic defensive rebound
  72. Q4 6:44
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  73. Q4 7:02
    +2
    Rui Hachimura makes two point running layup (LeBron James assists)
    99-102
  74. Q4 7:06
    Nuggets turnover
  75. Q4 7:29
    +2
    Lakers makes two point jump shot
    97-102
  76. Q4 7:29
    Nuggets 60 second timeout
  77. Q4 7:29
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic)
  78. Q4 7:33
    Nikola Jokic turnover (bad pass) (Luka Doncic steals)
  79. Q4 7:41
    LeBron James personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
  80. Q4 7:41
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Zeke Nnaji, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic)
  81. Q4 8:01
    +2
    Jaxson Hayes makes two point cutting dunk (LeBron James assists)
    95-102
  82. Q4 8:21
    Lakers defensive rebound
  83. Q4 8:22
    Tim Hardaway Jr. misses two point driving layup
  84. Q4 8:22
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  85. Q4 8:22
    Lakers lineup change (Luka Doncic, Jaxson Hayes, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James)
  86. Q4 8:36
    Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
  87. Q4 8:38
    +2
    Lakers makes two point jump shot
    104-110
  88. Q4 8:38
    Nuggets personal foul
  89. Q4 8:38
    Jaxson Hayes misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  90. Q4 8:54
    Jonas Valanciunas offensive foul (Jaxson Hayes draws the foul)
  91. Q4 8:54
    Jonas Valanciunas turnover (offensive foul)
  92. Q4 9:06
    LeBron James turnover
  93. Q4 9:09
    Austin Reaves defensive rebound
  94. Q4 9:12
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  95. Q4 9:38
    +3
    Lakers makes three point jump shot
    104-110
  96. Q4 9:47
    Rui Hachimura shooting foul (Jonas Valanciunas draws the foul)
  97. Q4 9:47
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Jaxson Hayes, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James)
  98. Q4 9:47
    +1
    Jonas Valanciunas makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    113-120
  99. Q4 9:47
    +1
    Jonas Valanciunas makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    113-120
  100. Q4 9:51
    Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
  101. Q4 9:52
    Lakers misses two point jump shot
  102. Q4 9:52
    Jaxson Hayes offensive rebound
  103. Q4 9:56
    Lakers misses two point jump shot
  104. Q4 10:16
    Zeke Nnaji offensive rebound
  105. Q4 10:16
    +2
    Zeke Nnaji makes two point putback layup
    110-112
  106. Q4 10:20
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  107. Q4 10:29
    Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
  108. Q4 10:33
    Rui Hachimura misses three point jump shot
  109. Q4 10:40
    Austin Reaves defensive rebound
  110. Q4 10:44
    Jamal Murray misses two point jump shot
  111. Q4 10:59
    +2
    Austin Reaves makes two point putback layup
    95-102
  112. Q4 10:59
    Austin Reaves offensive rebound
  113. Q4 11:04
    Lakers misses three point jump shot
  114. Q4 11:14
    Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound
  115. Q4 11:16
    Luke Kennard shooting foul (Tim Hardaway Jr. draws the foul)
  116. Q4 11:16
    +1
    Tim Hardaway Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    95-102
  117. Q4 11:16
    +1
    Tim Hardaway Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    95-102
  118. Q4 11:16
    Tim Hardaway Jr. misses regular free throw 3 of 3
  119. Q4 11:27
    Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
  120. Q4 11:29
    Lakers misses two point jump shot
  121. Q4 11:51
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    86-96
  122. Q3 00:00
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  123. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  124. Q4 12:00
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Zeke Nnaji, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Jonas Valanciunas)
  125. Q4 12:00
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Jaxson Hayes, Luke Kennard, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James)
  126. Q3 00:01
    Nikola Jokic misses three point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
  127. Q3 00:16
    +3
    Luka Doncic makes three point jump shot
    95-102
  128. Q3 00:25
    Austin Reaves offensive rebound
  129. Q3 00:29
    Lakers misses three point jump shot
  130. Q3 00:39
    Lakers personal foul
  131. Q3 00:39
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Zeke Nnaji, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nikola Jokic)
  132. Q3 00:39
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Jaxson Hayes, Luke Kennard, LeBron James)
  133. Q3 00:39
    +1
    Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    95-102
  134. Q3 00:39
    +1
    Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    113-120
  135. Q3 1:05
    +3
    Luka Doncic makes three point jump shot
    83-91
  136. Q3 1:09
    Lakers offensive rebound
  137. Q3 1:10
    Nikola Jokic blocks Jake LaRavia's two point jump shot
  138. Q3 1:22
    Jake LaRavia personal foul (Tim Hardaway Jr. draws the foul)
  139. Q3 1:22
    +1
    Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    80-90
  140. Q3 1:22
    Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
  141. Q3 1:22
    +1
    Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    83-91
  142. Q3 1:24
    LeBron James misses three point jump shot
  143. Q3 1:35
    Nikola Jokic turnover (lane violation)
  144. Q3 1:35
    Nuggets violation
  145. Q3 1:35
    Lakers lineup change (Luka Doncic, Jaxson Hayes, Luke Kennard, Jake LaRavia, LeBron James)
  146. Q3 1:53
    +2
    Luka Doncic makes two point jump shot
    80-89
  147. Q3 2:17
    +3
    Bruce Brown makes three point jump shot
    78-89
  148. Q3 2:26
    Tyus Jones defensive rebound
  149. Q3 2:28
    Lakers misses two point jump shot
  150. Q3 2:31
    Luka Doncic defensive rebound
  151. Q3 2:34
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  152. Q3 2:49
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  153. Q3 2:49
    Nuggets defensive rebound
  154. Q3 2:49
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nikola Jokic, Tyus Jones)
  155. Q3 2:52
    Lakers misses two point jump shot
  156. Q3 3:12
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    95-102
  157. Q3 3:26
    Nuggets defensive rebound
  158. Q3 3:26
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  159. Q3 3:27
    Lakers misses three point jump shot
  160. Q3 3:40
    Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
  161. Q3 3:40
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    95-102
  162. Q3 3:45
    Bruce Brown misses two point jump shot
  163. Q3 4:06
    +2
    Austin Reaves makes two point jump shot
    95-102
  164. Q3 4:07
    Nuggets 60 second timeout
  165. Q3 4:07
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Luke Kennard, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura)
  166. Q3 4:23
    Luka Doncic defensive rebound
  167. Q3 4:25
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  168. Q3 4:42
    +3
    Lakers makes three point jump shot
    95-102
  169. Q3 5:00
    Luka Doncic defensive rebound
  170. Q3 5:02
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  171. Q3 5:15
    Rui Hachimura personal foul
  172. Q3 5:15
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Luke Kennard, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James)
  173. Q3 5:15
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura)
  174. Q3 5:15
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic)
  175. Q3 5:21
    Nuggets lineup change (Zeke Nnaji, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic)
  176. Q3 5:21
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  177. Q3 5:21
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  178. Q3 5:24
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  179. Q3 5:40
    +2
    Lakers makes two point jump shot
    73-82
  180. Q3 5:45
    Christian Braun turnover
  181. Q3 5:51
    Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
  182. Q3 5:53
    Marcus Smart misses two point driving layup
  183. Q3 6:16
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    95-102
  184. Q3 6:27
    +3
    Rui Hachimura makes three point running jump shot (Austin Reaves assists)
    73-82
  185. Q3 6:42
    Nuggets turnover (LeBron James steals)
  186. Q3 6:54
    Luka Doncic turnover (offensive goaltending)
  187. Q3 6:54
    Instant replay (Challenge)
  188. Q3 6:54
    Lakers challenge timeout
  189. Q3 6:54
    Lakers 60 second timeout
  190. Q3 6:54
    Luka Doncic violation
  191. Q3 6:54
    Instant replay
  192. Q3 6:54
    Stoppage (Court cleanup)
  193. Q3 6:54
    Nuggets 60 second timeout
  194. Q3 6:56
    Lakers misses three point jump shot
  195. Q3 7:07
    Nikola Jokic personal foul
  196. Q3 7:07
    Nikola Jokic turnover (offensive foul)
  197. Q3 7:12
    Marcus Smart personal foul (Nikola Jokic draws the foul)
  198. Q3 7:12
    Marcus Smart turnover (offensive foul)
  199. Q3 7:22
    +3
    Lakers makes three point jump shot
    95-102
  200. Q3 7:37
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    80-91
  201. Q3 7:43
    LeBron James personal foul
  202. Q3 7:43
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    95-102
  203. Q3 7:43
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James)
  204. Q3 7:54
    Luka Doncic offensive rebound
  205. Q3 7:54
    +2
    Lakers makes two point jump shot
    113-120
  206. Q3 7:59
    Lakers misses two point jump shot
  207. Q3 8:03
    Nuggets turnover
  208. Q3 8:06
    Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
  209. Q3 8:08
    Luka Doncic misses two point driving layup
  210. Q3 8:22
    Lakers personal foul
  211. Q3 8:22
    +1
    Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    83-91
  212. Q3 8:22
    +1
    Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    95-102
  213. Q3 8:26
    Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
  214. Q3 8:27
    Austin Reaves misses two point jump shot
  215. Q3 8:37
    Nuggets turnover
  216. Q3 8:55
    +2
    Austin Reaves makes two point pullup jump shot
    59-73
  217. Q3 9:09
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    95-102
  218. Q3 9:20
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  219. Q3 9:20
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  220. Q3 9:20
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  221. Q3 9:34
    +1
    Austin Reaves makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    60-73
  222. Q3 9:34
    Nuggets personal foul
  223. Q3 9:34
    +1
    Austin Reaves makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    95-102
  224. Q3 9:47
    +2
    Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot
    95-102
  225. Q3 9:48
    Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
  226. Q3 9:49
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  227. Q3 10:06
    +3
    Lakers makes three point jump shot
    83-91
  228. Q3 10:16
    Nikola Jokic personal foul (Jaxson Hayes draws the foul)
  229. Q3 10:24
    +1
    Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    59-73
  230. Q3 10:24
    LeBron James personal foul (Nikola Jokic draws the foul)
  231. Q3 10:24
    +1
    Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    83-91
  232. Q3 10:31
    Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
  233. Q3 10:34
    Marcus Smart misses three point jump shot
  234. Q3 10:49
    +2
    Julian Strawther makes two point jump shot
    113-120
  235. Q3 11:05
    Jamal Murray defensive rebound
  236. Q3 11:07
    Luka Doncic misses two point jump shot
  237. Q3 11:27
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    113-120
  238. Q3 11:44
    +2
    Lakers makes two point jump shot
    83-91
  239. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  240. Q3 12:00
    Lakers lineup change (Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Jaxson Hayes, Marcus Smart, LeBron James)
  241. Q3 12:00
    Nuggets lineup change (Zeke Nnaji, Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic)
  242. Q2 00:54
    Lakers offensive rebound
  243. Q2 00:55
    Lakers misses three point jump shot
  244. Q1 00:32
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Zeke Nnaji, Tim Hardaway Jr., Tyus Jones, Jonas Valanciunas)
  245. Q1 00:32
    Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Zeke Nnaji, Tim Hardaway Jr., Tyus Jones, Jonas Valanciunas)
  246. Q1 4:57
    Nikola Jokic turnover (offensive foul)
Box Score
Lakers
PosPlayerPts
Nuggets
PosPlayerPts

Lakers vs. Nuggets: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lakers vs. Nuggets
  • Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Ball Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Nuggets favored at -4
  • Total (Over/Under): 240.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Lakers +145, Nuggets -164

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lakers: 37%
  • Nuggets: 63%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Lakers 118-121 Nuggets.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lakers a win probability of 37%, while the Nuggets have a win probability of 63%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Nuggets are more likely to beat the Lakers in the NBA game at Ball Arena on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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