NY City vs. Philadelphia Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the NY City vs. Philadelphia MLS match on October 4, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS
NY City
0
1
Subaru Park
Philadelphia
Subaru Park
PhiladelphiaPHI
Score Summary
NY CityNYC
M. Uhre (40')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Philadelphia
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • NY City
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: M. Carrizo replaces M. Moralez
  2. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: A. Bedoya replaces I. Vassilev
  3. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: O. Mbaizo replaces M. Iloski
  4. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: J. Fernandez replaces H. Wolf
  5. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: J. Bueno replaces B. Damiani
  6. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: A. Ojeda replaces A. Martinez
  7. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: M. Ilenic replaces T. Gray
  8. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: T. Baribo replaces M. Uhre
  9. 55'
    Yellow Card
    B. Damiani (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  10. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: A. O'Neill replaces K. O'Toole
  11. 40'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by M. Uhre, assisted by J. Lukic
    0-1
  12. 36'
    Yellow Card
    J. Glesnes (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  13. 34'
    Yellow Card
    K. O'Toole (New York City) cautioned
  14. 19'
    Yellow Card
    D. Jean Jacques (Philadelphia Union) cautioned

NY City vs. Philadelphia: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: NY City vs. Philadelphia
  • Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Subaru Park

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: NY City +270, Philadelphia -110, draw +275
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-150/+130)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • NY City: 25.7%
  • Philadelphia: 50.0%
  • Draw: 24.2%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: NY City 1-1 Philadelphia (11.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win NY City vs. Philadelphia? Prediction & correct score

Philadelphia is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 50.0%.

The most likely correct score is NY City 1-1 Philadelphia.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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