Austin FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes prediction, odds, MLS picks [9/5/2026]

Austin will square off with San Jose in MLS action at Q2 Stadium on Saturday, commencing at 8:30 PM ET.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Austin as the most likely winner in this Austin vs. San Jose prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Austin FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLS game between Austin and San Jose, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model indicates a 44.1% chance of Austin winning, a 32.3% chance for San Jose, and a 23.6% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 60.2% chance of going over, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: San Jose +199, Austin +141
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-156/+155)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Austin @ +141 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +155 via BetRivers

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Austin to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Austin 1-1 San Jose (10.7% probability)
• Austin 2-1 San Jose (9.1%)
• Austin 1-2 San Jose (7.6%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's MLS matchup between Austin and San Jose in MLS at Q2 Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: Austin FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes
• Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
• Venue: Q2 Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Austin has a 44.1% win probability on Saturday, San Jose has a 32.3% win probability, and there is a 23.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.