New York City vs. Philadelphia Union prediction, odds, MLS picks [8/16/2026]

NY City and Philadelphia will meet in MLS action at Yankee Stadium on Sunday, starting at 6:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced MLS model projects NY City as the most likely winner in this NY City vs. Philadelphia prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

New York City vs. Philadelphia Union prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLS matchup between NY City and Philadelphia, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model indicates a 45.6% chance of NY City winning, a 30.8% chance for Philadelphia, and a 23.6% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 59.6% chance of going over, according to our model.

New York City vs. Philadelphia Union odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Philadelphia +180, NY City +155

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

New York City vs. Philadelphia Union picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: NY City @ +155 via Bet365
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -150 via Bet365

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is NY City to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

New York City vs. Philadelphia Union: Correct score predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• NY City 1-1 Philadelphia (10.7% probability)
• NY City 2-1 Philadelphia (9.2%)
• NY City 1-0 Philadelphia (7.8%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

New York City vs. Philadelphia Union game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's game between NY City and Philadelphia in MLS at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to commence at 6:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York City vs. Philadelphia Union
• Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
• Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
• Venue: Yankee Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, NY City has a 45.6% win probability on Sunday, Philadelphia has a 30.8% win probability, and there is a 23.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.