FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [10/31/2026]

MLS Cup action continues on Saturday at 2:00 PM ET as Philadelphia locks horns with Cincinnati in the first round at TQL Stadium.

Dimers' advanced MLS model projects Philadelphia as the most likely winner in this Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLS game between Cincinnati and Philadelphia, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model suggests a 37.1% chance of Cincinnati winning, a 41.8% chance for Philadelphia, and a 21.1% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 74.6% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Philadelphia +170, Cincinnati +153
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-217/+203)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Philadelphia @ +170 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -217 via Novig

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Cincinnati 1-1 Philadelphia (7.7% probability)
• Cincinnati 1-2 Philadelphia (7.7%)
• Cincinnati 2-1 Philadelphia (7.3%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's MLS matchup between Cincinnati and Philadelphia in MLS at TQL Stadium is scheduled to begin at 2:00 PM ET.

• Who: FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union
• Date: Saturday, October 31, 2026
• Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00 AM PT
• Venue: TQL Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Cincinnati has a 37.1% win probability on Saturday, Philadelphia has a 41.8% win probability, and there is a 21.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.