Chicago Fire vs. New York City prediction, odds, MLS picks [10/10/2026]

Chicago and NY City are scheduled to meet in MLS action at Soldier Field on Saturday, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Chicago as the most likely winner in this Chicago vs. NY City prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Chicago Fire vs. New York City prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLS game between Chicago and NY City, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 50.3% chance of Chicago winning, a 26.5% chance for NY City, and a 23.2% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 58.5% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: NY City +285, Chicago +100
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+163)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: NY City @ +285 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +163 via Polymarket

According to our best MLS bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Chicago 1-1 NY City (10.7% probability)
• Chicago 2-1 NY City (9.6%)
• Chicago 1-0 NY City (8.6%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's MLS matchup between Chicago and NY City in MLS at Soldier Field is scheduled to start at 2:30 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Fire vs. New York City
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30AM PT
• Venue: Soldier Field

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Chicago has a 50.3% win probability on Saturday, NY City has a 26.5% win probability, and there is a 23.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.