Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Astros vs. Red Sox MLB game on May 1, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Astros
Mike Burrows 1-3, 6.25 ERA
1
3
Fenway Park
Red Sox
Jake Bennett 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Fenway Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Astros
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 0
Red Sox
0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 X 3 10 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Astros
    0%
  • Red Sox
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Yordan Alvarez grounds out to shallow infield, Marcelo Mayer to Willson Contreras.
Quick Box Score
Astros Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 C. Correa SS5131100.6002.000
2 Y. Alvarez DH5000001.0000.000
3 I. Paredes 3B3020010.6671.417
4 C. Walker 1B3010011.3330.833
5 J. Altuve 2B4010000.2500.500
6 Y. Diaz C4020000.5001.250
7 C. Smith RF4000002.0000.000
8 B. Matthews CF4010002.2500.500
9 C. Vázquez PH1000000.0000.000
Red Sox Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Duran LF4113100.2501.250
2 W. Contreras 1B3010002.3330.833
3 R. Anthony DH4030000.7501.750
4 W. Abreu RF4000000.0000.000
5 T. Story SS4020000.5001.000
6 M. Mayer 2B4010001.2500.500
7 C. Rafaela CF3010000.3330.666
8 C. Narváez C2100011.0000.333
9 C. Durbin 3B3110000.3330.666

Astros vs. Red Sox: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Astros vs. Red Sox
  • Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
  • Time: 7:10 PM ET
  • Venue: Fenway Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Red Sox favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 9.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Astros 46¢, Red Sox 53¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Astros: 45%
  • Red Sox: 55%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Astros a win probability of 45%, while the Red Sox have a win probability of 55%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Red Sox are more likely to beat the Astros in the MLB game at Fenway Park on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Astros vs. Red Sox predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.