Phillies vs. Nationals: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Phillies vs. Nationals MLB game on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Phillies
Zack Wheeler 12-5, 3.14 ERA
3
0
Nationals Park
Nationals
Jared Simpson 1-0, 6.75 ERA
Nationals Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Phillies
2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 5 0
Nationals
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Phillies
    100%
  • Nationals
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
José Tena strikes out swinging.
Quick Box Score
Phillies Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 K. Schwarber DH4000012.0000.200
2 T. Turner SS4100011.0000.200
3 B. Harper RF4210011.2500.650
4 L. Arraez 2B2011030.5001.800
5 A. Bohm 1B20210301.0002.000
6 B. Stott 3B3001020.0000.400
7 J. Realmuto C4000012.0000.200
8 B. Marsh LF4000001.0000.000
9 J. Crawford CF3010010.3331.167
Nationals Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Wood RF4000000.0000.000
2 D. Lile LF4020000.5001.000
3 A. Ortiz 1B3000012.0000.250
4 C. Abrams SS4010000.2500.750
5 J. Tena DH4000003.0000.000
6 J. Vivas 2B3000001.0000.000
7 D. Crews CF3010001.3330.666
8 B. House 3B1000001.0000.000
9 H. Ford C0000000.0000.000

Phillies vs. Nationals: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Wednesday

  • Teams: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
  • Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2026
  • Time: 6:45PM ET
  • Venue: Nationals Park

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Phillies (-1.5, -108), Nationals (+1.5, +105)
  • Moneyline: Phillies -174, Nationals +178
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5 runs (-117/+117)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Phillies: 64.6%
  • Nationals: 35.4%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Phillies a win probability of 64.6%, while the Nationals have a win probability of 35.4%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Phillies are more likely to beat the Nationals in the MLB game at Nationals Park on Wednesday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Phillies vs. Nationals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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