Mets vs. Guardians Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Mets vs. Guardians MLB game on August 4, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Mets
Sean Manaea 2-5, 4.42 ERA
6
2
Aug 4, 6:40 PM ET Progressive Field
Guardians
Joey Cantillo 8-6, 3.88 ERA
Aug 4, 6:40 PM ET Progressive Field
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Mets
0 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 6 9 1
Guardians
0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 7 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Mets
    100%
  • Guardians
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Nathaniel Lowe flies out to left field to A.J. Ewing.
Quick Box Score
Mets Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 A. Ewing LF5020000.4001.000
2 F. Lindor SS5000002.0000.000
3 B. Bichette 3B4121101.5001.750
4 F. Alvarez DH4010003.2500.500
5 C. Benge RF4111100.2501.250
6 L. Robert CF4000002.0000.000
7 M. Semien 2B3200011.0000.250
8 J. Young 1B3100010.0000.250
9 L. Torrens C31341101.0003.000
Guardians Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 S. Kwan CF4010000.2500.650
2 J. Adell RF4120011.5001.350
3 C. DeLauter DH2110030.5001.300
4 N. Lowe 1B2000000.0000.000
5 A. Martínez LF3011011.3331.167
6 T. Bazzana 2B4011002.2500.500
7 G. Arias 3B4000002.0000.000
8 A. Hedges C3000010.0000.250
9 B. Rocchio SS2010020.5001.250

Mets vs. Guardians: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Mets vs. Guardians
  • Date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026
  • Time: 6:40 PM ET
  • Venue: Progressive Field

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Guardians favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Mets +127, Guardians -126

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Mets: 49%
  • Guardians: 51%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Mets a win probability of 49%, while the Guardians have a win probability of 51%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Guardians are more likely to beat the Mets in the MLB game at Progressive Field on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Mets vs. Guardians predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.