Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction: Baltimore favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [9/22/2026]

The Baltimore Orioles will square off with the Toronto Blue Jays, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Tuesday, beginning at 6:35 PM ET.

The Orioles will send Chris Bassitt (8-5, 4.64 ERA) to the mound, while the Blue Jays have opted for Max Scherzer (3-8, 6.07 ERA).

Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 50.6% win probability over the Blue Jays.

This article offers a complete Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction, including best bets and picks.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's MLB game between the Blue Jays and Orioles, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Orioles a 50.6% chance of defeating the Blue Jays. According to our model, the Blue Jays (+1.5) have a 65.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 54.8% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-205) / Orioles -1.5 (+175)
• Moneyline: Blue Jays +113, Orioles -113
• Total: Over/Under 7.5 (+115/-117)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Orioles -1.5 @ +175 via bet365
• Moneyline: Blue Jays @ 47¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 7.5 @ 47¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Tuesday's MLB game between the Orioles and Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to begin at 6:35 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
• Date: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
• Time: 6:35 PM ET/3:35PM PT
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Conclusion

We predict the Orioles, with a 50.6% win probability, will likely beat the Blue Jays in Tuesday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.