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Read Article Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction: Baltimore favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [9/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 51.0% win probability for the Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
MLB action continues on Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET as the Toronto Blue Jays square off with the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Chris Bassitt (8-5, 4.64 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Orioles, up against Max Scherzer (3-8, 6.07 ERA) for the Blue Jays.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 51.0% win probability over the Blue Jays.
This article offers a complete Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction, including best bets and picks.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Blue Jays and Orioles, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Orioles a 51.0% chance of beating the Blue Jays. According to our model, the Blue Jays (+1.5) have a 64.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 59.4% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-200) / Orioles -1.5 (+176)
- Moneyline: Blue Jays +113, Orioles -113
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-108/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Orioles -1.5 @ +176 via FanDuel
- Moneyline: Blue Jays @ 47¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 52¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Orioles and Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to commence at 6:35 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
- Time: 6:35 PM ET/3:35PM PT
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Conclusion
We predict the Orioles, with a 51.0% win probability, will likely beat the Blue Jays in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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