Oct 15, 2026
MLB postseason player props today: Thursday's best props include Gavin Williams [10/15/2026]
Read Article Rays vs. Guardians prediction: Why Cleveland is favored to win Thursday's Game 3 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 53.9% win probability for the Guardians at Progressive Field.
The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays will lock horns in MLB action at Progressive Field on Thursday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
The Guardians will have Gavin Williams (1-0, 1.54 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Rays will counter with Griffin Jax (0-0, 4.50 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Guardians a slight edge with a 53.9% win probability over the Rays.
This article offers a complete Rays vs. Guardians prediction, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Gavin Williams' pitching projections.
Rays vs. Guardians prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's MLB game between the Rays and Guardians, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Guardians a 53.9% chance of defeating the Rays in Game 3 of the series. According to our model, the Rays (+1.5) have a 64.1% chance of covering the run line, while the 6.5-run over/under has a 59.1% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-190) / Guardians -1.5 (+186)
- Moneyline: Rays +117, Guardians -122
- Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-108/+106)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet for Game 3
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Guardians -1.5 @ 35¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Rays @ 46¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 6.5 @ 52¢ via Novig
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Thursday's MLB Game 3 between the Guardians and Rays at Progressive Field is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Date: Thursday, October 15, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Progressive Field
Conclusion
We predict the Guardians, with a 53.9% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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