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Read Article Pirates vs. Reds prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/31/2026]
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Friday.
The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates will meet in MLB action at Great American Ball Park on Friday, starting at 6:10 PM ET.
Hunter Greene (2-2, 7.06 ERA) will start for the Reds, while the Pirates will counter with Paul Skenes (9-9, 3.66 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 52.2% win probability over the Reds.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Pirates vs. Reds matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Pirates and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 52.2% chance of beating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 60.1% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 56.9% chance of going over,.
Pirates vs. Reds odds [7/31/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+144) | +1.5 (-147) |
| Moneyline | -117 | +115 |
| Total | o7.5 (-113) | u7.5 (+108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | -147 |
| Moneyline | Reds | hard_rock+115 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -113 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB action between the Reds and Pirates at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to start at 6:10 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Friday, July 31, 2026
- Time: 6:10 PM ET/3:10PM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 52.2% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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