Sep 19, 2026
Tigers vs. White Sox prediction: Why White Sox are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/19/2026]
Read Article Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/19/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 55.1% win probability for the Mets at Citi Field.
The New York Mets will square off with the Philadelphia Phillies in MLB action at Citi Field on Saturday, beginning at 4:10 PM ET.
The Mets will have Christian Scott (4-5, 3.76 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Phillies will counter with Andrew Painter (3-9, 5.54 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner in this Phillies vs. Mets prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mets a 55.1% chance of defeating the Phillies. According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 61.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 58.0% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-186) / Mets -1.5 (+178)
- Moneyline: Phillies +113, Mets -115
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-115/+113)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 36¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ 53¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Saturday's MLB action between the Mets and Phillies at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 55.1% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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