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Read Article Phillies vs. Marlins prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [7/28/2026]
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins predictions for MLB Tuesday.
MLB action continues on Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET as the Philadelphia Phillies lock horns with the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park.
The Marlins will start Sandy Alcantara (10-6, 4.01 ERA), while the Phillies have opted for Aaron Nola (3-8, 5.82 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Marlins a slight edge with a 51.8% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's Phillies vs. Marlins matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Marlins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's MLB game between the Phillies and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Marlins a 51.8% chance of defeating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 65.2% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52.5% chance of going over,.
Phillies vs. Marlins odds [7/28/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-178) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +122 | -125 |
| Total | o8.5 (+115) | u8.5 (-117) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Marlins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Phillies +1.5 | -178 |
| Moneyline | Phillies | +122 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | +115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Marlins game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB action between the Marlins and Phillies at loanDepot park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Marlins, with a 51.8% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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