Sep 25, 2026
Braves vs. Marlins prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/25/2026]
Read Article Mets vs. Nationals prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 53.2% win probability for the Mets at Nationals Park.
The Washington Nationals and New York Mets are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Nationals Park on Friday, starting at 6:45 PM ET.
The Nationals will start Andrew Alvarez (2-6, 3.17 ERA), pitting him against Jefry Yan (2-1, 4.34 ERA) for the Mets.
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 53.2% win probability over the Nationals.
This article offers a complete Mets vs. Nationals prediction, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Nationals prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Mets and Nationals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mets a 53.2% chance of defeating the Nationals. According to our model, the Nationals (+1.5) have a 58.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 54.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+163) / Nationals +1.5 (-167)
- Moneyline: Mets +100, Nationals -104
- Total: Over/Under 8 (-110/-110)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 38¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ 50¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8 @ -110 via bet365
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB action between the Nationals and Mets at Nationals Park is scheduled to start at 6:45 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
- Date: Friday, September 25, 2026
- Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45PM PT
- Venue: Nationals Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 53.2% win probability, will likely beat the Nationals in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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