Mets vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [8/9/2026]

The Pittsburgh Pirates will square off with the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at PNC Park on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.

Jared Jones (2-3, 4.02 ERA) will start on the mound for the Pirates, up against Sean Manaea (3-5, 4.33 ERA) for the Mets.

Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 55.0% win probability over the Mets.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's Mets vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.

Mets vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Mets and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 55.0% chance of defeating the Mets.

According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 62.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52.9% chance of going over,.

Mets vs. Pirates odds [8/9/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Mets +1.5 @ -160 via hard_rock
• Moneyline: Mets @ +133 via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ +106 via Novig

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mets vs. Pirates picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Mets +1.5 @ -160 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Mets @ +133 via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ +106 via Novig According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mets vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's MLB game between the Pirates and Mets at PNC Park is scheduled to begin at 1:35 PM ET.

• Who: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Date: Sunday, August 9, 2026
• Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
• Venue: PNC Park

Conclusion

We predict the Pirates, with a 55.0% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Sunday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.