MLB player props today: Saturday's best props include Andrew Painter [9/19/2026]

Andrew Painter under 4.5 strikeouts (-136)

• Edge: 9.6%
• Probability: 67.2%
• Game: Phillies vs. Mets (4:10PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Phillies' Andrew Painter under 4.5 strikeouts. A probability of 67.2% gives this play an edge of 9.6% at -136 odds.

Nathan Church to get a hit (-160)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 64.8%
• Game: Nationals vs. Cardinals (7:15PM ET)

Nathan Church’s to get a hit prop shows a 64.8% probability and an 3.3% edge at -160 odds, according to our model.

Andrew Painter under 15.5 outs recorded (-136)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 64.1%
• Game: Phillies vs. Mets (4:10PM ET)

The data highlights value on Andrew Painter under 15.5 outs recorded, with simulations showing a 64.1% probability and a 6.5% edge at -136.

Sean Burke under 5.5 strikeouts (-148)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 63.5%
• Game: Tigers vs. White Sox (7:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Sean Burke under 5.5 strikeouts, with a 63.5% probability and an edge of 3.8% at -148 odds.

Casey Mize under 4.5 strikeouts (-115)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 60.8%
• Game: Marlins vs. Padres (8:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Casey Mize under 4.5 strikeouts for Padres, showing an edge of 7.3% at -115 odds.

Brett Baty to get a hit (-120)

• Edge: 6.2%
• Probability: 60.8%
• Game: Phillies vs. Mets (4:10PM ET)

Brett Baty’s to get a hit prop shows an edge of 6.2% at -120 odds, supported by a 60.8% probability according to our model.

Michael McGreevy under 17.5 outs recorded (-119)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 58.9%
• Game: Nationals vs. Cardinals (7:15PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Michael McGreevy under 17.5 outs recorded for Cardinals, with a 58.9% probability and a 4.6% edge at -119 odds.

Francisco Alvarez to get a hit (-118)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 58.8%
• Game: Phillies vs. Mets (4:10PM ET)

The data shows value on Francisco Alvarez to get a hit, supported by a 58.8% probability at -118 odds and an edge of 4.7%.

Michael McGreevy under 3.5 strikeouts (+116)

• Edge: 9.3%
• Probability: 55.6%
• Game: Nationals vs. Cardinals (7:15PM ET)

A 9.3% edge on the under 0.5 strikeouts line makes Michael McGreevy a value play in Nationals vs. Cardinals, supported by a 55.6% probability at +116 odds.

Juan Soto over 1.5 bases (+119)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 48.1%
• Game: Phillies vs. Mets (4:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Juan Soto over 1.5 bases here, with a 48.1% probability and 2.5% edge at +119 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Saturday, September 19, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 12:26AM ET:

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Conclusion

For September 19, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Andrew Painter, Nathan Church and Sean Burke. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.