Home run predictions for Dinger Tuesday include Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis [9/29/2026]

• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 20.4% probability
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 17.7%
• Ben Rice (Yankees): 15.4%
• Munetaka Murakami (White Sox): 14.6%
• Fernando Tatis (Padres): 14.6%
• Spencer Jones (Yankees): 14.4%
• Christian Walker (Astros): 14.4%
• Isaac Paredes (Astros): 14.1%
• Manny Machado (Padres): 13.4%
• Austin Wells (Yankees): 13.4%

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 20.4% chance to go deep, followed by Yordan Alvarez (17.7%) and Ben Rice (15.4%).

Munetaka Murakami and Fernando Tatis are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Tuesday's home run picks [9/29/2026]

Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro identifies today’s top home run prop.

Taylor Trammell (Astros) to hit a home run

• Probability: 12%
• Odds: +1050
• Edge: 3.3%
• Pitching matchup: Hagen Smith
• More game projections: White Sox vs. Astros prediction (5:00 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Houston slugger Taylor Trammell rates as a value play at +1050 with Fanatics, showing a 3.3% edge.

Against White Sox starter Hagen Smith, the data supports Trammell as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a weekly tradition where bettors focus on home run value plays across the slate.

Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.

Pro users have access to a total of five home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 29, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Taylor Trammell who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.3% edge at +1050 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Tuesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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