Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +750 pick for Friday [9/11/2026]

• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 23.4% probability
• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 21.0%
• Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): 18.1%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.5%
• Riley Greene (Tigers): 16.9%
• Jo Adell (Guardians): 16.4%
• Juan Soto (Mets): 16.3%
• Taylor Ward (Mariners): 16.2%
• Pete Alonso (Orioles): 16.2%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 16.0%

Our analysis shows Raleigh leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.4% chance to go deep, followed by Aaron Judge (21.0%) and Julio Rodríguez (18.1%).

Junior Caminero and Riley Greene are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [9/11/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) to hit a home run

• Probability: 14.8%
• Odds: +750
• Edge: 3.0%
• Pitching matchup: Ryan Gusto
• More game projections: Dodgers vs. Marlins prediction (7:10 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Kyle Tucker rates as a value play at +750 with Fanatics, showing a 3.0% edge.

Against Marlins starter Ryan Gusto, the data supports Tucker as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of six home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 11, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Cal Raleigh, Aaron Judge and Julio Rodríguez projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Kyle Tucker who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.0% edge at +750 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Friday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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