Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +1800 pick for Friday [9/11/2026]

Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, September 11, 2026, feature Cal Raleigh as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.

Friday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.

Home run predictions for September 11, 2026

See which hitters join Raleigh on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1800.

• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 24.6% probability
• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 22.4%
• Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): 19.2%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.8%
• Ben Rice (Yankees): 17.2%
• Taylor Ward (Mariners): 17.0%
• Riley Greene (Tigers): 16.7%
• Juan Soto (Mets): 16.4%
• Dominic Canzone (Mariners): 16.3%
• Jo Adell (Guardians): 16.3%

Our analysis shows Raleigh leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.6% chance to go deep, followed by Aaron Judge (22.4%) and Julio Rodríguez (19.2%).

Junior Caminero and Ben Rice are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [9/11/2026]

Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro highlights today’s top home run prop.

Cody Freeman (Rangers) to hit a home run

• Probability: 8.3%
• Odds: +1800
• Edge: 3.0%
• Pitching matchup: Merrill Kelly
• More game projections: Rangers vs. D-Backs prediction (9:40 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Texas slugger Cody Freeman rates as a value play at +1800 with Fanatics, showing a 3.0% edge.

Set to face Merrill Kelly in tonight's Rangers-D-Backs matchup, the data supports Freeman as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of seven home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 11, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Cal Raleigh, Aaron Judge and Julio Rodríguez projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Cody Freeman who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.0% edge at +1800 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Friday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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