Home run predictions for Wednesday include Aaron Judge, Ben Rice [9/9/2026]

• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 28.4% probability
• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 26.2%
• Ben Rice (Yankees): 21.8%
• Jazz Chisholm (Yankees): 20.8%
• Spencer Jones (Yankees): 19.9%
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 19.6%
• Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays): 19.1%
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers): 19.0%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 18.8%
• Max Muncy (Dodgers): 18.7%

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 28.4% chance to go yard, followed by Shohei Ohtani (26.2%) and Ben Rice (21.8%).

Jazz Chisholm and Spencer Jones are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Wednesday's home run picks [9/9/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, identifies today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Francisco Alvarez (Mets) to hit a home run

• Probability: 15.5%
• Odds: +950
• Edge: 6.0%
• Pitching matchup: Janson Junk
• More game projections: Mets vs. Marlins prediction (6:40 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Francisco Alvarez rates as a value play at +950 with Fanatics, showing a 6.0% edge.

Set to face Janson Junk in tonight's Mets-Marlins matchup, the data supports Alvarez as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 21 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 9, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Francisco Alvarez who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.0% edge at +950 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Wednesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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