MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Mets vs. Guardians play [8/6/2026]

Mets vs. Guardians Over 7.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 7.2%
• Probability: 57.2%
• Matchup: Mets vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 7.5 runs in Mets vs. Guardians at +100 odds. A 57.2% probability produces an edge of 7.2%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Pirates vs. Brewers Over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 56.1%
• Matchup: Pirates vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET)

Pirates vs. Brewers over 7.5 runs carries a 5.1% edge and a probability of 56.1% at -104 odds, according to our model.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5 runs (-122)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 59.9%
• Matchup: Padres vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET)

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5 runs at -122 odds shows a 4.9% edge, supported by a 59.9% probability in simulations.

Blue Jays vs. Cubs over 7.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 54.8%
• Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET)

A 4.8% edge and 54.8% probability make Blue Jays vs. Cubs over 7.5 runs a value play in the Blue Jays vs. Cubs matchup, per our model.

Athletics vs. Reds Over 9.5 runs (+104)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 53.1%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Reds (12:40PM ET)

Athletics vs. Reds Over 9.5 runs at +104 odds presents a 4.0% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.1%.

Marlins vs. Braves Over 8.5 runs (-122)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 58.9%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 8.5 runs in Marlins vs. Braves at -122 odds, supported by an edge of 3.9%.

Angels vs. Orioles Over 9.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 54.9%
• Matchup: Angels vs. Orioles (12:35PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Angels vs. Orioles Over 9.5 runs at -104 odds. A 54.9% probability produces a 3.9% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Athletics ML (+150)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 43.1%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Reds (12:40PM ET)

A 3.1% edge on a 43.1% probability makes Athletics to win at +150 odds a solid value play in today's Athletics vs. Reds matchup.

Twins vs. RoyalsOver 8.5 runs (-122)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 57.8%
• Matchup: Twins vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)

Our model projects value on Over 8.5 runs at -122 odds. A 57.8% probability produces a 2.9% edge, making the Over the favorable side in today's matchup.

Athletics +1.5 (-133)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 59.8%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Reds (12:40PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Athletics +1.5 at -133 odds shows a 59.8% probability and a 2.7% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Thursday, 8/6/2026

As of 4:23AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [8/6/2026]

• Angels vs. Orioles (12:35PM ET, Thursday)
• Athletics vs. Reds (12:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Mets vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Pirates vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Blue Jays vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET, Thursday)
• Tigers vs. Mariners (4:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Nationals vs. Phillies (6:05PM ET, Thursday)
• White Sox vs. Red Sox (7:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Marlins vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Twins vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Padres vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for August 6, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Mets vs. Guardians matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Pirates vs. Brewers matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.